The Best Way to Manage Keywords: A Risk-Based Framework

Chris Schaefer opens with a blunt observation: not all keywords are the same, and treating them as if they are is a fast way to waste money. His central argument is that every keyword carries a level of risk—the chance that Google will spend your budget on clicks from people who aren't actually looking for what you sell. Rather than avoiding risk entirely, Schaefer argues that smart account management means deliberately sorting keywords into three risk categories and allocating budget accordingly.

The Three Risk Categories Defined

Schaefer defines risk in terms of how much control you have over traffic quality when you set a bid and walk away. Low-risk keywords are those where you can leave them running for a week or a month with very little chance of wasted spend. They tend to be three or more words long, use phrase or exact match, sit in the low-to-mid funnel, and require relatively high bids because the traffic is valuable.

Moderate-risk keywords share the same structural traits—longer tail, phrase or exact match—but sit higher in the funnel. They carry more ambiguity about what the searcher actually wants, and they typically warrant lower bids.