The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett

URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: 70% Chance US Sends Troops To Iran THIS WEEK! | Robert Pape

July 23, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In the first week of the war, the U.S. killed the equivalent of Iran's president, first lady, half the cabinet, all the Pentagon and CIA leadership, and a third of Congress—yet the regime survived. According to Robert Pape, a scholar who has modeled the bombing of Iran for 20 years and advised every White House from 2001 to 2024, this outcome was not a surprise. It was exactly what his models predicted. The deeper problem is that the war has made Iran stronger than it was before it began, and the U.S. is now trapped in a strategic dilemma with no good exit.

The Core Dilemma: Hormuz and the Balance of Power

The war's central issue is control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil once flowed. Within days of the initial bombing in late February, Iran seized control of the strait and has held it ever since. The U.S. has tried bombing campaigns, a blockade, and even a signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to resolve the crisis—none have worked. Pape argues that the MOU, which Vice President JD Vance treated as a business deal offering Iran financial incentives to reopen the strait, was actually a roadmap for Iran to become the regional hegemon. Article 5 of the MOU gave Iran control of Hormuz and the power to set future fees, with no U.S. role. Article 1 would have locked in a sphere of influence from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea to the Gulf, usi

Continue reading the full summary in the app — free to try.

Read Full Summary →

Free • No credit card required

Listen to Audio Summary Open in App

What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:41) **Risk of US Ground Operation in Iran** - Pape estimates a 70% chance of US troops entering Iran, possibly by the end of the week, driven by an impending global oil crisis.
  • 2 (03:06) **Why Iran Survived the Initial Bombing** - Pape explains the regime survived a massive decapitation strike, which his models predicted.
  • 3 (05:31) **The Core Dilemma: The Fork in the Road** - The US faces a binary choice: physically retake the Strait of Hormuz or let Iran become the regional hegemon.
  • 4 (08:43) **Defining "Regional Hegemon"** - Pape explains the MOU would have made Iran the dominant state in the Middle East, not just a business partner.
  • 5 (11:32) **Iran's Strategic Base and Sphere of Influence** - Pape outlines Iran's plan to use control of Hormuz and proxies like Hezbollah to prevent oil bypasses.
  • 6 (14:55) **Why the War Restarted: Trump Violated the MOU** - President Trump signed the MOU but immediately undermined it, leading Iran to resume attacks.
  • 7 (21:49) **Iran is Stronger Now Than Before the War** - Pape states Iran has been strengthened by the conflict, gaining control over a global energy choke point.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Robert Pape

Show Notes

The War everyone assumed was over may be about to become something far worse than we could have expected. Professor Robert Pape explains exactly why the deadliest phase of this war is still ahead, and how this could trigger a wave of terror across the world.

Robert Pape is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. A renowned political scientist, he has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of the upcoming book “Our Own Worst Enemies: America and the Age of Violent Populism”.

He explains:
■ Why the US bombing campaign failed to topple Iran’s regime, even after killing its top leaders
■ How Iran seized control of 20% of the world’s oil supply within days of the war starting
■ Why the failed agreement handed Iran a path to becoming the most powerful country in the region
■ Why both China and Russia gain from America staying stuck in the Middle East
■ Why he thinks US ground troops could be next
■ Why he thinks there will be a clash between Congress and the president over who really controls the power to go to war

Chapters

  • 00:00:00 Intro
  • 00:02:22 Why Robert Pape Isn't Surprised
  • 00:04:04 Why the US Blocked the Strait of Hormuz
  • 00:05:23 The Secret JD Vance Peace Deal (MOU)
  • 00:08:13 Iran as Regional Hegemon, Explained
  • 00:09:40 How Do We Know This Is the Real Document?
  • 00:21:05 Did the War Actually Make Iran Stronger?
  • 00:22:06 The Viral Tweet: How Is Iran Still Hitting US Bases?
  • 00:24:37 Trump Says Iran Is Destroyed — So How?
  • 00:25:39 Where Iran Hides Its Drones ("A Truck in California")
  • 00:29:04 Iran Is Building New Drones the Whole Time
  • 00:32:17 Are We on the Verge of a Global Economic Crisis?
  • 00:36:27 What "Owning the L" Would Actually Look Like
  • 00:38:37 Trump: The US Runs Out of Oil in 4 Weeks
  • 00:40:32 The Midterm Elections Time Bomb
  • 00:52:13 The Vietnam Parallel: LBJ's Trap
  • 00:55:06 Can the US Force the Strait of Hormuz Open?
  • 01:03:07 A 70% Chance of Boots on the Ground in Iran
  • 01:14:39 Why Invading (Not Bombing) Sparks Suicide Attacks
  • 01:24:05 When the Two Crises Collide: A New 1960s?
  • 01:25:01 Will Trump Lose the Midterms?
  • 01:26:40 Is the US Running Out of Weapons?
  • 01:28:40 What Is Trump's Real Objective?
  • 0
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett

More from this podcast

The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett →