The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House
August 30, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readBill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House sat down to run through every AFC team’s win total over/under for the upcoming season, and the conversation revealed a conference in a strange kind of limbo. The old guard of quarterbacks—Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow—is still here, but the supporting casts around them have shifted enough to make the usual assumptions feel shaky. The throughline of the episode was a question: which of these established powers are actually still powers, and which are coasting on reputation while the rosters quietly decay?
The Old Guard Under a Microscope
The AFC East produced the most contentious back-and-forth. Buffalo’s over/under is 10.5 wins, and the case for the under is almost entirely about the schedule and the supporting cast. Simmons pointed out that Josh Allen has dragged the Bills to 11-plus wins for six straight seasons, but he also noted that the Bills have below-average receivers, a shaky defense, and a brutal first five games (Houston, Detroit, Chargers, Patriots, Rams). “I’m a slight under,” Simmons said. “I don’t love it, but their schedule is awful and they really can’t afford an injury to Allen or Cook.” House countered that Allen is the single most valuable player to his team’s over/under in the league—“If you put Bo Nix on the Bills, are they a six-win team?”—and landed at 11 wins.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (06:20) **AFC Overview & QB Guard Shakeup** - The crew debates whether the AFC is in a transition year between the old guard QBs (Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow) and the new guard (Drake Maye, Herbert, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence), and introduces the "Marino Watch" concept for QBs facing pressure to win a Super Bowl.
- 2 (09:37) **Buffalo Bills (10.5 wins)** - The panel analyzes whether the Bills can maintain their 11+ win streak with a new offensive coordinator and a brutal early-season schedule.
- 3 (16:36) **New England Patriots (10.5 wins)** - The crew debates the Patriots' surprisingly high win total, weighing their talent upgrades against inevitable regression from a 14-3 season.
- 4 (23:30) **New York Jets (5.5 wins)** - The group discusses the Jets' bizarre situation, from their 14-year playoff drought to their defensive coordinator who didn't have a single interception.
- 5 (29:03) **Miami Dolphins (3.5 wins)** - The panel is stunned by the Dolphins' situation, with seven of their eight highest-paid players no longer on the team.
- 6 (36:44) **AFC North & Baltimore Ravens (10.5 wins)** - The conversation shifts to the AFC North, with a strong "lock" pick on the Ravens driven by the arrival of new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.
- 7 (47:21) **Cincinnati Bengals (10.5 wins)** - The crew debates the "sexy team du jour," questioning their offensive line and Joe Burrow's durability despite an easy schedule.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal and Joe House for Part 2 of their annual NFL over/unders pod. Next up: the AFC!
(0:00) Intro
(5:44) AFC East
(37:11) AFC North
(01:09:30) AFC South
(01:32:16) AFC West
Host: Bill Simmons
Guest: Cousin Sal and Joe House
Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo
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