The Race Is On: Otani, the Dodgers' Slide, and Baseball's Tanking Incentive Problem

The National League MVP race has tightened dramatically. According to prediction markets, Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow Armstrong has actually leapfrogged Shohei Otani as the betting favorite for the 2026 NL MVP award. But Ben Maller is selling that stock hard. "The gap has closed, I will concede," he says. "Obviously the gap has closed." But prediction markets are "very reactionary" and full of "dumb money" that becomes "prisoners of the moment." PCA is "the latest narrative darling, the flavor of the month, fueled by the fatigue of Otani."

Why PCA's Lead Is Fragile

The main reason the race is even close: Otani paused his pitching on July 3rd. That brief interlude opened the door. But Maller identifies a deeper problem with PCA's candidacy: he's a "feast or famine" player. "He'll be great for three months and then absolutely horrific under any measurement over another period of time." PCA signed an extension earlier this year and wasn't playing well. Last season, he didn't play the second half at all. "There's not a lot of level of consistency."