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Leopold is Back! Big Tech Earnings, Defense Tech Deep Dive | Richard Craib, Trae Stephens, Blake Resnick

July 31, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Leopold Is Back: The Situational Awareness Comeback Letter

Leopold Aschenbrenner is down but not out. After a brutal July that saw his hedge fund, Situational Awareness LP, hit a 67% drawdown, he released a letter to investors that has become the talk of Wall Street and Silicon Valley. The letter is direct, takes full responsibility, and lays out exactly what happened—including the block sale of the fund's public equity book to Ken Griffin's Citadel. The fund is not shutting down, not liquidating, and not converting to a private-only vehicle. It is still up 80% year to date.

What Happened to Situational Awareness

The letter clarifies several points that had been the subject of intense speculation. Aschenbrenner writes that the fund experienced a "significant drawdown over the course of July, which was exacerbated by extreme moves in core positions over the past week. Many AI names drew down by half or more while our positive long short spread reversed violently." He acknowledges that the fund began to see "increasingly adverse trading in names publicly associated with us," which he compares to a bank run—a candid admission that few fund managers would make publicly.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 Timestamped Outline
  • 2 (00:00) **Show Open & Guest Co-Host Introduction** - Tyler joins as guest co-host; brief ad reads for Ramp and MongoDB
  • 3 (00:26) **Leopold Aschenbrenner's LP Letter: The Full Breakdown** - The hosts read and analyze Leopold's letter to LPs of Situational Awareness LP after the July drawdown
  • 4 (09:00) **The Bet: Situational Awareness vs. Citadel by 2030** - Shalto and Augustine LeBron make a public bet on whether Leopold's fund will surpass Citadel by end of decade
  • 5 (12:14) **New Leopold Photos Surface from Mainstream Media** - Wall Street Journal and New York Times publish rare new images of Aschenbrenner
  • 6 (13:54) **Comparing Blow-Ups: Leopold vs. Bill Hwang** - Rambo's comparison highlights the scale difference between Situational Awareness and Archegos
  • 7 (15:58) **Lessons on Leverage and Portfolio Construction** - Analysis of what went wrong and what might change going forward

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

  • (00:27) - Leopold is Back!
  • (29:21) - Big Tech Earnings
  • (32:45) - Richard Craib is a mathematician, AI researcher, and founder of Numerai, an AI-driven quantitative hedge fund. Richard Craib discusses the distinction between genuine alpha and returns driven by concentrated risk, arguing that disciplined diversification, mathematical risk management, and sustainable long-term investing matter more than short-term gains or investor hero worship.
  • (01:00:15) - Trae Stephens, co-founder of Anduril and general partner at Founders Fund, discusses volatile venture valuations, responsible fundraising, and the evolving defense-tech ecosystem. He also covers Anduril’s autonomous aircraft and rapid manufacturing expansion, the case for mandatory civil service, and Founders Fund’s investment strategy.
  • (01:34:39) - Blake Resnick, founder and CEO of public-safety drone company BRINC, discusses the company’s $125 million capital raise and tours its drones, recharging pods, R&D facilities, and factory. He explains BRINC’s plans to deploy autonomous emergency-response drones nationwide, its strategic partnership with Motorola Solutions, and opportunities for innovation across the domestic drone supply chain.
  • (01:53:47) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions


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