How to handle uncertainty (w/ Simone Stolzoff)

Simone Stolzoff, author of How to Not Know, describes uncertainty as an unavoidable feature of decisions and daily life rather than a problem to eliminate. He frames trust and forward movement as an active engagement with what cannot be fully known, using his own experience choosing between a journalism role and a design-firm position as an example of the anxiety that arises when people search for certainty that future outcomes cannot provide.

Distinguishing types of uncertainty

Stolzoff separates acute uncertainty, which has a clear resolution date, from ambient uncertainty, which involves open-ended questions about careers, technology, climate, or social stability. Research he cites shows that the waiting period itself often produces more distress than the eventual outcome. In one study, participants anticipating a possible electric shock reported higher stress when the probability was fifty percent than when it was certain. The same pattern appeared among breast-cancer patients awaiting biopsy results. This distinction matters because strategies that work for one form of uncertainty do not automatically apply to the other.

Handling acute uncertainty