2026 Nobel Prize Predictions: Medicine, Physics & Chemistry (EP 60)

October 3, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In the 2026 Nobel Prize preview episode of From First Principles, hosts Lester Nare and Krishna Chowdhury make their annual predictions across Medicine, Physics, and Chemistry. The central organizing question is not just who might win, but which fundamental scientific discoveries have been transformative enough, long enough, and clean enough in attribution to fit the Nobel Committee’s strict three-person limit. The episode is built around a recurring tension: the most deserving breakthroughs often involve four or more key contributors, forcing the committee to make difficult choices—or wait for time to narrow the field.

Medicine: Three Contenders, One Hard Problem

The hosts offer three distinct predictions for the Medicine prize, each with a different structural challenge.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Episode Intro & Setup** - The hosts open with a scene-setter about the Nobel Prize phone call and outline their plan for the week.
2 (02:14) **Medicine Prediction 1: GLP-1 Drugs (Ozempic/Wegovy)** - The first medicine prediction covers the glucagon-like peptide-1 hormone and its blockbuster drug applications.
3 (07:52) **Medicine Prediction 2: Optogenetics** - This recycled prediction from last year focuses on the light-sensitive protein channelrhodopsin.
4 (13:21) **Medicine Prediction 3: Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT)** - The final medicine pick is a non-invasive imaging technique used primarily on the retina.
5 (16:33) **Housekeeping & Golden Goose Awards Recap** - A brief interlude thanking partners and promoting the show.
6 (18:37) **Physics Prediction 1: The Aharonov-Bohm Effect** - The first physics prediction is a recycled pick for a fundamental quantum mechanics discovery that has surprisingly never won.
7 (27:46) **Physics Prediction 2: Atomic Force Microscope (AFM)** - The second physics prediction covers this revolutionary nanotechnology tool.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Krishna Chowdhury

Show Notes

Who could win the 2026 Nobel Prizes? From the science behind Ozempic to quantum interference and droplets inside living cells, Lester Nare and Krishna Choudhary make their picks for Medicine, Physics and Chemistry, and explain the discoveries behind them.

In Episode 60 of From First Principles, we explore seven research areas with a case for Nobel recognition: GLP-1, optogenetics, optical coherence tomography, the Aharonov–Bohm effect, atomic force microscopy, biomolecular condensates and Buchwald–Hartwig coupling. We also discuss Michael Berry’s geometric phase and the awkward question of how a prize limited to three people recognizes discoveries built by larger teams.

These are our predictions, recorded before the 2026 announcements. Medicine, Physics and Chemistry will be announced October 5–7. Which discovery, and which researchers, would you pick? Tell us in the comments, then join us for our Nobel week breakdowns.

CHAPTERS

00:00 The science that could win a Nobel Prize

00:57 Hello Internet: our 2026 predictions

02:03 Medicine: GLP-1 and the science behind Ozempic

07:41 Medicine: optogenetics and controlling neurons with light

13:16 Medicine: optical coherence tomography

16:28 Golden Goose Awards and FFP updates

18:39 Physics: the Aharonov–Bohm effect and geometric phase

27:37 Physics: atomic force microscopy

32:04 Chemistry: biomolecular condensates

36:36 Chemistry: Buchwald–Hartwig coupling

38:42 Your predictions and our Nobel week plans