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Where is ETH in the cycle? | Michael Nadeau

March 11, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

🎙️ The Voices & The Context

  • The Format: A casual, analytical conversation between two crypto-native investors. It's part of a recurring monthly check-in on the state of Ethereum.
  • The Key Players:
    • Ryan (Host): The enthusiastic guide, representing the "Bankless" community of ETH believers. He's curious, asks the hard questions, and wants to know if his favorite asset is still worth the hype.
    • Michael Nadeau (Guest): The data-driven analyst from The DeFi Report. He's the cycle expert, famous for his on-chain metrics and fair value models. He's bullish but brutally objective, treating ETH as a thesis to be proven, not a religion.
  • The Vibe: Educational, slightly tense, and deeply analytical. It's a mix of sobering reality checks (ETH's diminishing returns) and hopeful data points (stablecoin dominance). It feels like a boardroom meeting where the star player is on probation.

🗝️ Key Themes & Topics

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (00:00) **🎙️ Introduction: Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report)**
  • 2 (03:51) **ETH's Cycle History: Diminishing Returns**
  • 3 (08:33) **The L2 Roadmap: Disrupting Itself**
  • 4 (15:51) **Valuation Frameworks for ETH: A Messy Picture**
  • 5 (27:34) **On-Chain Fundamentals: Revenue, Staking, and Stablecoins**
  • 6 (38:45) **Cycle Metrics: Is ETH at a Bottom?**
  • 7 (44:04) **Fair Value vs. Deep Value & Portfolio Strategy**

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Ethereum underperformed this cycle, and investors are asking the big question: did ETH just skip a cycle, or is something deeper going on? Michael Nadeau joins Ryan to break down where Ethereum sits in the market cycle today, why several of his key indicators suggest ETH is entering a fair value zone, and whether the true macro bottom could still lie ahead.


They also unpack why ETH struggled despite improving fundamentals. Mike explains how Ethereum’s L2 roadmap may have improved the network while weakening short-term value capture for the asset itself, and what signals he’s watching (MVRV, supply in profit, the 200-week moving average) as he looks for the next expansion phase.


Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report:

https://x.com/JustDeauIt

https://thedefireport.io/

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TIMESTAMPS


0:00 Intro

3:50 The History of ETH Cycles

5:41 Analyzing Performance Trends

8:32 The Impact of L2 Roadmap

10:24 Roadmap Decisions & Market Perception

15:50 Valuation Metrics Explained

20:08 Disparities in Valuation Methods

23:22 Navigating Market Conditions

26:14 Nation-State Metaphor & Valuation

27:45 Revenue and Economic Impact

33:42 DEX Volumes & Their Implications

37:25 Stablecoin Supply on Ethereum

38:09 Cycle Metrics & Analysis

44:22 Fair Market Value Insights

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