AI Summary
5 min readThe most important question for crypto investors right now is whether the bottom is in or more pain lies ahead. The bulls and bears are locked in what analyst Michael Nato calls the "second battle" of this cycle's wealth destruction phase. Nato, who runs The DeFi Report and co-hosts weekly cycle analysis with Bankless, puts the odds at roughly 60/40 that Bitcoin has not yet hit its cycle low — but he acknowledges the case is close enough that both sides deserve a serious hearing.
The Cycle Framework and Where We Are
Nato anchors his analysis in the four-year crypto cycle, which he describes as "almost like biology" — a structure driven by liquidity conditions, credit cycles, and investor psychology that has never been broken. The current cycle began in January 2023 with an early bull phase, moved into wealth creation when the ETFs launched and Trump was inaugurated, then peaked in October 2024. Since then, the market has been in wealth destruction, confirmed by early 2025. We are now six months into this bear phase, trading in a range between the low 60s and mid 70s for Bitcoin. The key question is whether we have already seen the cycle low or whether this winter has more chill to deliver.
The Bull Case: Why This Time Might Be Different
Continue reading the full summary in the app — free to try.
Read Full Summary →Free • No credit card required
Never miss an episode of Bankless
Get every new episode summarized in your inbox — free, ~5 minutes to read.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
What you'll learn
- 1 (00:03) **Episode Introduction & The Core Question** - Ryan introduces the central debate: have we bottomed or is more pain ahead? Guest Michael Nato is introduced as a top cycle investor.
- 2 (03:35) **Defining the Cycle & Current Phase** - Michael outlines the four-phase cycle (early bull, wealth creation, wealth distribution, wealth destruction) and confirms we are in the wealth destruction phase of the fourth crypto cycle.
- 3 (08:03) **The First Battle: December/January Recap** - Michael describes the earlier market standoff where bulls saw a dip as a buying opportunity, while he remained bearish on market structure.
- 4 (11:17) **Why the Four-Year Cycle Exists** - Michael argues the cycle is a "law of nature" driven by liquidity, credit cycles, and unchanging investor psychology.
- 5 (14:06) **Bitcoin On-Chain Fair Value KPIs** - Michael shows that Bitcoin briefly entered his "fair value zone" in early February, but did not reach the "deep value" levels of previous bear markets.
- 6 (17:05) **The S&P 500 & The 200-Day Moving Average** - Michael analyzes the S&P's position near all-time highs and its break below the 200-day moving average in March, questioning if this is a brief scare or the start of a larger correction.
- 7 (20:52) **Steel-Maning the Bull Case: The War is Over** - Michael presents the bullish argument that the worst of the Iran conflict is priced in, similar to the 2025 tariff scare.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
Has crypto already bottomed, or is more pain still ahead? Mike and Ryan break down the bull and bear case in full, from Bitcoin fair value and market structure to global liquidity, AI demand, and the macro risks still hanging over markets. Mike explains why he thinks the setup still looks more like a bear market than a new uptrend, even if the odds are close. It’s a sharp episode on how to navigate a market that could break either way.
Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report:
https://x.com/JustDeauIt
https://thedefireport.io/bankless
---
📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING
---
BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS:
🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKET
https://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast
🪐GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING
https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne
🦊 METAMASK | DOWNLOAD NOW
https://go.metamask.io/BL-Pod-Download
🏅BITGET TRADFI | TRADE GOLD WITH USDT
https://bankless.cc/bitget
🎯THE DEFI REPORT | ONCHAIN INSIGHTS
https://thedefireport.io/bankless
🌐BRIX | EMERGING MARKET YIELD
https://bankless.cc/brix
---
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:18 Understanding the crypto cycle
3:23 The wealth destruction phase
5:30 Defining the current market conditions
8:14 Reflecting on past market battles
11:15 The four-year cycle explained
13:19 The impact of liquidity cycles
17:12 Analyzing the S&P and market health
20:34 The bullish case for crypto
24:07 Exploring on-chain metrics
27:16 The bear case outlined
32:14 The difficulty of market navigation
44:26 Summarizing the bearish perspective
48:12 Market uncertainty
59:54 Closing & disclaimers
More from this podcast