ROLLUP: The Bull Market Test | Clarity Dies | SEC Opens the Door | Hyperliquid Comes Onshore

September 18, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The third week of September delivered a clear signal: the crypto market has entered a phase where good news lifts prices and bad news barely registers. Despite two significant bearish events—the failure of the Clarity Act and the first Fed rate hike since 2022—prices held steady or rose. As Ryan put it, "good news is making prices go up and bad news is not mattering," which he called "telltale sign of the bull market." The market absorbed the double blow and kept climbing, confirming for the hosts that crypto is in the earliest innings of a new cycle.

The Bull Market Signal

The defining market observation of the week was that crypto prices shrugged off genuinely negative catalysts. The Clarity Act failed in a Senate procedural vote when all Democrats voted no, falling eleven votes short of the supermajority needed. The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, with the target rate moving to 3.75%-4% in a unanimous 12-0 vote. Yet Bitcoin, Ether, and many altcoins traded flat or higher after both events.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:03) **Episode Thesis: The Bull Market Test** - Good news makes prices go up, bad news doesn't matter; a telltale sign of being in the earliest innings of a bull market.
2 (02:47) **Bitcoin Price Bands for Bull Market Confirmation** - Analyst Michael Nato's specific price range for confirming a crypto bull market.
3 (05:05) **Zcash and Near: Mid-Market Recovery** - Privacy and perps are major themes, with Zcash hitting all-time highs and Near seeing strong adoption.
4 (08:40) **Tom Lee's Trad-Fi Rally Prediction** - Tom Lee predicts one of the biggest rallies of our lifetime for the S&P 500.
5 (10:24) **The Bond Market War: Hot Economy vs. Debasement** - The US 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5%, and Treasury Secretary Bessent's efforts to lower yields are failing.
6 (14:52) **Fed Rate Hike: Warsh's First Move** - The Fed raises rates for the first time since 2023, and Trump surprisingly covers for his new Fed Chair.
7 (21:12) **Clarity Act Failure: The Politics Behind It** - The Clarity Act fails a Senate procedural vote, falling 11 votes short, despite Trump agreeing to ethics provisions.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Michael Nato

Show Notes

Crypto just shrugged off a Fed hike and the death of the Clarity Act. Ryan and David break down the early-bull signal, the SEC’s tokenized-stock breakthrough, the coming options race, and Hyperliquid’s path into the U.S.

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