ROLLUP: Bull Market? | Inflation Cools, War Heats | Robinhood Flips Base | ETH’s Fee Problem

July 17, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The third week of July brings the same recurring question for crypto markets: have we bottomed yet? The hosts open with a chart mapping Bitcoin’s four bull markets across 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2026, each sectioned into bear, pre-bull, first bull, and second bull phases. The pattern lines up nearly perfectly with prior cycles, suggesting the current bear phase still has roughly two quarters left. Ryan and David split on what happens next — David leans toward a slow grind sideways for the rest of the year, while Ryan expects a final capitulation wick, possibly in October, one year after the 1010 bottom. Both agree the cycle is not yet done. “Never fade the cycle,” Ryan says, calling it a tattoo-worthy mantra. A Twitter poll from Brian Armstrong shows the crowd nearly split: 44% say the bottom is in, 55% say it is not.

Inflation Cools, War Heats

Two macro forces pulled in opposite directions this week. June CPI inflation came in at 3.1%, below the 3.8% analysts expected. Core CPI fell to 2.6%, also below expectations, and month-over-month inflation dropped 0.4% — the biggest monthly decline since May 2020. The market breathed a collective sigh of relief, especially after last month’s higher-than-expected print had raised fears of near-term rate hikes. Risk assets, including crypto, rallied.

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What you'll learn

1 ROLLUP: Bull Market? | Inflation Cools, War Heats | Robinhood Flips Base | ETH’s Fee Problem
2 (00:03) **Episode Opening & Cycle Question** - Ryan and David introduce the week's topics: inflation cooling, Iran war heating, Robinhood Chain flipping Base, and the perennial question of whether we've bottomed
3 (02:01) **Four-Year Cycle Chart Analysis** - Ryan and David examine a chart mapping Bitcoin's four bull markets (2014, 2018, 2022, 2026) into bear, pre-bull, first bowl, and second bowl sections
4 (05:28) **Brian Armstrong's Sentiment Poll & Seller Exhaustion** - Armstrong's Twitter poll shows 44% say bottom is in, 55% say no; discussion of what could still send markets lower
5 (07:35) **Inflation Cools - June CPI Data** - June CPI inflation falls to 3.5% (below 3.8% expected), core CPI to 2.6% (below 2.8% expected)
6 (08:53) **Iran War Heats Up** - Fifth straight day of US strikes on Iran; Trump informs Congress of resumed military action under War Powers Act
7 (14:59) **Crypto Market Strength & ETH Outperformance** - Bitcoin up 2.5%, ETH up 8% for the week; unique strength in crypto relative to stocks

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Inflation cooled, war intensified, and crypto climbed anyway. Ryan and David ask if the bottom is in, unpack Robinhood Chain’s surge past Base, and debate who benefits from Ethereum’s L2 boom.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:29 Cycle Bottom Watch

https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2077774313726304659

https://x.com/goodalexander/status/2077031311664197738

https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2076857638059720736

5:24 Inflation Cools, War Heats

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2077008212994253025

https://x.com/geiger_capital/status/2077011477580451983

14:56 Crypto Outperforms Stocks

https://x.com/saylor/status/2076638696053276748

https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2076647130572235017

https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2077197119207756098

22:34 Robinhood Chain Breaks Out

https://x.com/donnoh_eth/status/2075890751834071189

https://dune.com/entropy_advisors/robinhood-chain-network-overview

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/07/15/the-launchpad-that-fueled-robinhood-chain-s-memecoin-boom-just-gave-away-all-its-revenue

https://dune.com/adam_tehc/the-robinhood-trenches

29:31 Base Pivots to Trading

https://x.com/jessepollak/status/2077427261586997745

https://x.com/jessepollak/status/2077550728416256489

https://x.com/austincampbell/status/20775453