How Long Will the AI Boom Continue? The #1 Question for Crypto Investors | Michael Nadeau

Michael Nadeau joins Bankless to examine whether the ongoing AI boom resembles a bubble and what that means for crypto, given crypto's record correlation to the NASDAQ in 2026. He applies Carlota Perez's framework from Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, which describes tech revolutions progressing through eruption (initial breakthrough), frenzy (narrative-driven hype and investment), turning point (crash and reset), synergy, and maturity. ChatGPT's 2022 release marked AI's eruption; 2024-2025 feels like late frenzy.

Perez Framework and AI's Position

Perez's model explains recurring patterns in tech adoption: a new technology gains broad acceptance, narratives form around productivity gains and disruptions, growth validates the story, but over-optimism leads to valuation detachment, overbuilding, and a reset. Bubbles aren't avoided; they're part of the cycle, as seen in railroads, autos, radio, electricity, and internet. AI fits: models improve sequentially, Anthropic reports massive revenue growth (from $10 million annualized in Dec 2022 to $45 billion by May 2026), enterprises integrate AI for efficiency. The uncertainty is timing—no axis shows how long frenzy lasts, influenced by economy, liquidity, politics, and tech's ultimate impact (Nate Silver's "technical Richter scale" unknown for AI). Crypto has endured multiple such cycles.