10 Crypto Predictions for 2026: $1M BTC, Wall Street Onchain & ETF Takeover | Matt Hougan & Ryan Rasmussen from Bitwise

December 16, 2025

AI Summary

5 min read

🎙️ The Voices & The Context

The Format: This interview-style podcast dives into crypto market predictions with experts reviewing past calls and forecasting ahead, blending analytical foresight with optimistic momentum on institutional adoption and regulatory shifts. Optimistic and data-driven.
The Format: An interview with structured banter on predictions.
The Key Players:
- Matt Hogan (Bitwise): ETF veteran and former ETF.com CEO, known for deep insights on institutional crypto flows and on-chain vaults.
- Ryan Rasmussen (Bitwise): Crypto research lead, famous for bold annual predictions and tracking ETF adoption trends.
- Host David Hoffer: Bankless founder, facilitates with probing questions, personal anecdotes, and crypto-native enthusiasm, creating lively chemistry through shared bullishness and gentle roasts of past misses.

🗝️ Key Themes & Topics

The episode recaps 2025 predictions amid macro chaos, then unveils 10 bold 2026 forecasts plus a bonus, emphasizing regulatory tailwinds, institutional inflows, and crypto's maturation beyond retail cycles.

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What you'll learn

1 **(00:00) 🎙️ Introduction: Matt Hogan & Ryan Rasmussen from Bitwise**
2 **(01:52) 2025 Predictions Recap: Price Targets & Market Hits**
3 **(13:02) 2026 Prediction #1: Bitcoin Breaks 4-Year Cycle, New ATHs**
4 **(16:41) 2026 Prediction #2: Bitcoin Less Volatile Than NVIDIA**
5 **(22:03) 2026 Prediction #3: ETFs Buy >100% New Supply (BTC/ETH/SOL)**
6 **(29:45) 2026 Prediction #4: Crypto Equities Outperform Tech Equities**
7 **(37:01) 2026 Prediction #5: Polymarket Open Interest New ATH >2024 Election**

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen return with 10 big predictions for 2026.

From the case for $1M BTC (and why the classic four-year cycle may be dead) to a world where ETFs soak up more than 100% of new BTC/ETH/SOL supply.

We get into Bitcoin volatility vs. mega-cap tech, crypto equities vs. tech equities, and why Polymarket could smash past its 2024 election-era highs.

Plus: stablecoins as an “escape valve” that emerging economies may blame for currency stress, on-chain also known as “ETFs 2.0,” and how the Clarity Act could be the starter’s gun for ETH and SOL to run.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Last Year Predictions

13:12 1. Bitcoin Breaks 4-Year Cycle

16:19 2. BTC Less Volatile Than NVDA

22:09 3. ETFs Purchasing New Supply of Crypto

30:02 4. Crypto Equities Outperforming Equities

37:23 5. Prediction Markets All-Time Highs

42:50 6. Stablecons Destabilizing Currencies

48:16 7. Onchain Vaults Doubling in AUM

52:56 8. Clarity Act Triggering ETH & Sol All-Time Highs

56:40 9. Ivy League Endowments Investing in Crypto

58:49 10. 100+ Crypto ETPs Launching

1:01:14 Bitwise Announcement

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