AI Summary
5 min readIn November 2024, Donald Trump won 47% of voters under 30—a stunning shift from a reliably Democratic bloc. He even won a majority of young male voters by 15 points. But less than two years later, the same cohort is souring fast. A Wall Street Journal poll from late September shows Trump’s approval among Gen Z at just 23%, with 73% disapproving. Democrats now lead among Gen Z by 20 points in generic congressional ballots, compared to an eight-point lead overall. The youth vote that helped carry Trump back to the White House appears to be slipping away.
The Podcast Strategy That Worked—and Why It’s Fading
Trump’s 2024 media strategy was unconventional: he skipped traditional outlets like 60 Minutes and instead sat for multi-hour conversations on podcasts like Flagrant and The Joe Rogan Experience. It worked, reaching young men who don’t usually follow politics. But the same voices that amplified Trump are now turning critical. Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, and others have publicly questioned the administration’s foreign policy, immigration actions, and unfulfilled promises. As Rachel Janfaza, founder of Gen Z research firm The Up and Up, notes, these podcasters “were never really hardcore Republicans to begin with. They more sort of bought on to the Trump train in 2024, just like a lot of the young men that I’ve spoken to.” Their shifting commentary, she says, is “prett
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:22) **The 2024 Shift: How Trump Won Young Voters** - Opening with the headline: Trump won 47% of voters under 30 in 2024, including a 15-point margin among young men, marking a historic break from the reliably blue youth vote.
- 2 (01:22) **The Disillusionment Sets In** - Raw voter audio and poll data show young conservatives feel betrayed by unfulfilled promises on wars, the economy, and affordability.
- 3 (02:21) **Introducing the Two-Part Series & the Guest** - Host Pierre Bienaimé sets up a special series on Gen Z voters (ages 14-29, nearly 50 million eligible) and brings in White House correspondent Natalie Andrews to cover the Republican side.
- 4 (03:04) **The Podcast Strategy: Can It Work Again?** - Trump's 2024 success came from long-form podcasts (Joe Rogan, Flagrant) instead of legacy media; now JD Vance is doing a similar tour, but with a defensive message.
- 5 (04:12) **Gen Z as "The Most Politically Fluid Generation"** - GOP candidate Michael Alfonso (Wisconsin) argues that 50% of Gen Z identifies with neither party, making them pure swing voters who follow the best pitch on affordability.
- 6 (05:01) **The Podcaster Feedback Loop** - Rachel Janfaza (The Up and Up) explains that conservative podcasters were never hardcore Republicans; they reflect the mood of young men, who are now souring on Trump.
- 7 (06:10) **The Midterm Turnout Problem** - Natalie Andrews explains that midterms lack the energy of presidential elections, and the young men Trump activated are the hardest demographic to get to the polls in a non-presidential year.
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Show Notes
To stave off a blue wave in the U.S. midterm elections, Republicans hope to retain a group they overperformed with two years ago: voters under 30. But President Trump is beset by low approval ratings and a historical midterm trend that favors the party not holding the Oval Office. White House correspondent Natalie Andrews and WSJ editor Aaron Zitner join host Pierre Bienaimé to discuss how young voters are shifting away from the GOP. They consider conservative podcasters’ criticism of the president, Trump’s slipping poll numbers and use of AI memes, Gen Z’s growing disillusionment over foreign policy and economic pressures, and whether Republicans can hold on to their 2024 gains.
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