AI Summary
5 min readInflation held steady in February, but the numbers were collected before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, and the war is already reshaping the economic outlook. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, the U.S. military is refusing to escort oil tankers through what one analyst called a "killbox," and Democrats are rolling out tax-cut proposals to win over voters worried about their finances. Here are the major developments from today's episode.
The Inflation Report Is Already Outdated
The Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose 2.4% in February from a year earlier, matching January's pace and landing close to what economists expected. But as WSJ investing columnist Spencer Jakab put it, the data is "a bit like saying, you know, other than that, how did you like the play, Mrs. Lincoln?" The war with Iran began after these numbers were compiled, and it threatens to upend the inflation picture. Jakab noted that a prolonged conflict would hit not just energy prices but also food prices, because the region is critical for fertilizer supply and global transport. He pointed to the 1970s as a cautionary tale: central bankers tried to cut the economy back into health during an energy shock, which turned out to be a mistake. The current playbook, he said, is for the Fed to do nothing unless the war creates severe recessionary effects. The real-world numbers to watc
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:20) **Inflation Holds Steady, but War Looms** - February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching January's pace and economist expectations, but the data predates the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran.
- 2 (03:22) **IEA Agrees to Record Oil Reserve Release** - The International Energy Agency will release 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles to calm markets.
- 3 (04:10) **Strait of Hormuz Remains Effectively Closed** - Three commercial ships were hit near the strait, and Iran's armed forces said it won't let a "single liter of oil" pass for the benefit of the U.S. and its allies.
- 4 (06:53) **Market Roundup: Stocks Mixed, Oil Surges** - The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 500 ended slightly lower, and the Nasdaq ticked higher. Brent crude closed up nearly 5%.
- 5 (08:18) **Democrats Pitch Major Tax Cuts to Win Over Voters** - Senators Chris Van Hollen and Cory Booker are proposing plans to eliminate or drastically cut federal income taxes for millions of Americans.
- 6 (10:20) **McDonald’s to Launch New $3 Value Menu** - Starting next month, the chain will offer items costing $3 and less, plus new $4 breakfast deals, as it continues to push its affordability image.
- 7 (10:35) **Target Boycott May Be Ending** - Activists who organized a boycott over Target's DEI policy changes are ending their official campaign, saying Target privately acknowledged a breakdown in trust with the black community.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
P.M. Edition for Mar. 11. Three commercial ships were hit today near the Strait of Hormuz as Iran steps up its efforts to close off that critical shipping route for oil. WSJ Middle East correspondent Jared Malsin discusses why the Trump administration is turning down requests for military escorts through the strait, and what it would take to reopen it. Plus, U.S. inflation held steady in February. But, as we hear from Journal investing columnist Spencer Jakab, that data doesn’t incorporate the Middle East conflict, so the real question is what comes next. And the Trump administration is preparing to announce new tariff investigations that could result in higher tariffs on a number of countries. Alex Ossola hosts.
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