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5 min readHow Colleges Are Tackling the Enrollment Crunch
There are roughly two million fewer students enrolled in U.S. colleges today than a decade ago, and the root cause is surprisingly simple: fewer babies were born after the 2008 financial crisis, meaning fewer 18-year-olds are now graduating high school. That demographic shift, combined with growing skepticism about the value of a college degree, has pushed higher education into a moment of reckoning that looks different depending on the institution—but is forcing every school to adapt or face the consequences.
The Demographic Cliff and the Death Spiral
The enrollment crisis is fundamentally a numbers problem. As WSJ education reporter Doug Belkin explains, 2007 saw the largest number of births in American history, but the number has fallen nearly every year since. Those children are now turning 18, 19, and 20—and there are simply fewer of them. The decline is uneven across the country: Illinois expects a 30% drop in graduating high school students through 2041, while the national average is about 13%.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:35) **Introduction: The Enrollment Crisis Defined** - Host Alex Ocelot introduces the show's focus: how three colleges are responding to a historic enrollment crunch in higher education.
- 2 (02:09) **Demographics at the Heart of the Problem** - Reporter Doug Belkin explains that a drop in births after the 2008 financial crisis has led to fewer potential enrollees, with roughly two million fewer students in college today than a decade ago.
- 3 (03:09) **The "Death Spiral" and Who's Most at Risk** - Belkin describes how enrollment problems can become self-reinforcing, and clarifies that small private schools are hit first, but the issue is spreading to larger institutions.
- 4 (04:42) **The Pricing Paradox: Sticker Prices vs. Net Cost** - Belkin explains how federal lending fueled tuition inflation, but the current crisis is forcing schools to drop net prices through larger "scholarships" or outright sticker-price reductions.
- 5 (06:39) **Case Study #1: Syracuse University** - Reporter Roshan Fernandez details how Syracuse, despite a $2.5 billion endowment and national brand, fell short of its enrollment goal this year.
- 6 (08:50) **Case Study #2: St. Michael's College** - Doug Belkin explains how this small Vermont college is fighting for survival in a region where seven schools have closed in the past decade.
- 7 (10:26) **Case Study #3: Hampshire College** - Roshan Fernandez tells the story of Hampshire College, which announced it would close after the fall 2024 semester, despite a 2019 fundraising effort led by alumnus Ken Burns.
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Show Notes
American colleges and universities are in an admissions crunch. A looming demographic cliff means fewer 18-year-olds are applying, leaving schools scrambling to fill budget holes and chart a new path forward. WSJ education reporters Doug Belkin and Roshan Fernandez join host Alex Ossola to discuss why this is happening now and how three institutions are handling the problem.
Further Reading:
America’s Colleges Are Hurtling Toward an Enrollment Cliff
America’s College Towns Go From Boom to Bust
The Small Private Colleges Dying in a Winner-Take-All University Marketplace
Why Syracuse Can’t Attract the Students It Needs to Pay the Bills
The New Students at This Liberal Arts College Are in Their 80s
Hampshire Students Navigate the Chaos of a College Shutting Down
In Demand: The Colleges Where Students Start Jobs Right Away
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