AI Summary
5 min readIn the summer doldrums of 2025, Bitcoin was chopping around $65,000, and even the internal markets team at Galaxy Digital was split down the middle — 15 people voted that price action was grinding higher, and 15 voted that it was bear market noise. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, walked through the on-chain data, the policy fights, and the strange legal case trying to claim dormant coins, all to answer one question: what is actually happening right now, and what comes next?
The Supply Side Is Exhausted
Thorn’s core argument for a floor under Bitcoin is supply-side exhaustion. He ran a systematic analysis of on-chain metrics that have historically marked tops and bottoms — MVRV, SOPR, NUPL, HODL Wave data, Mayer Multiple, moving averages — and found that many of the topping indicators that spiked around the post-ETF all-time high in early 2024 never hit again. The cycle had a dampened amplitude: the 2021 top felt lower than expected, and the 2025 top at ~$125,000 also felt lower than the euphoria predicted.
Continue reading the full summary in the app — free to try.
Read Full Summary →Free • No credit card required
Never miss an episode of What Bitcoin Did
Get every new episode summarized in your inbox — free, ~5 minutes to read.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
What you'll learn
- 1 Timestamped Outline
- 2 (00:02) **Opening Thesis: Bitcoin as Self-Possessed Money** - Thorn opens with the core value proposition of Bitcoin as money that cannot be taken and can be sent anywhere at any time
- 3 (01:27) **Market Doldrums and Summer Slump** - Thorn describes the current market environment as boring but not bearish, with AI and regulatory clarity as the dominant narratives
- 4 (02:25) **On-Chain Metrics for Cycle Bottoming** - Thorn explains his systematic approach to identifying cycle bottoms using a catalog of on-chain metrics that have historically marked tops and bottoms
- 5 (04:04) **The "Chopsolidation" Thesis** - Thorn explains how Bitcoin ran early with ETFs and the Trump election, leading to a prolonged consolidation period
- 6 (05:38) **Internal Galaxy Poll: Grinding Higher or Bear Market Noise?** - Thorn reveals a split decision among Galaxy's markets team about whether current price action is the start of something or bear market noise
- 7 (06:48) **Supply-Side Exhaustion: Dormant Coins Awakening** - Thorn identifies a critical supply-side dynamic: the massive wave of old coins waking up in 2024-2025 is abating
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
“Who is left now that wants to sell at $65K?”
Bitcoin has gone through the price pain. Now comes the time pain.
Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, is back on the show in New York to get into whether Bitcoin has already found its bottom, why sellers may finally be exhausted, and how the next rally could begin before the wider market notices.
We discuss the on-chain signals around $58K, the changing shape of Bitcoin’s market cycles, and how the enormous debt funding the AI boom could revive the currency-debasement narrative and put Bitcoin back at the centre of the market.
We also get into whether a court can declare dormant Bitcoin “abandoned,” the attempt to claim legal ownership of coins linked to Satoshi, the quantum-computing risk, government control of superintelligent AI, and the last-minute fight to protect self-custody through the CLARITY Act.
*Note, this was recorded before the recent Coldcard vulnerability. For more info watch this… https://youtu.be/rf-9rf93OpE
THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS:
FOLLOW:
Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles
Alex Thorn: https://x.com/intangiblecoins
More from this podcast
What Bitcoin Did →