The Data Says Bitcoin’s Bottom Is Already In | Mitchell Askew & John Haar

August 7, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Bitcoin’s 50% drawdown from its all-time high felt different from previous bear markets. There was no Luna, no FTX, no single catastrophic blow-up to point to. Instead, the sell-off was driven by a quieter, more structural rotation of capital: long-term holders selling into strength at $100,000, miners pivoting to AI infrastructure, and the broader market’s attention—and liquidity—flooding into artificial intelligence stocks. Mitchell Askew, head of mining at Blockware Solutions, and John Haar, managing director at Swan Private, argue that this combination of factors has already exhausted the selling pressure, and that the data collectively points to a bottom that is likely already in.

The Case That the Bottom Is In

Continue reading the full summary in the app — free to try.

Read Full Summary →

Free • No credit card required

Listen to Audio Summary Open in App

Never miss an episode of What Bitcoin Did

Get every new episode summarized in your inbox — free, ~5 minutes to read.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

What you'll learn

1 (00:02) **Thesis: Bitcoin's Bottom Is Likely In** - Mitchell Askew opens with a 95% confidence that the price bottom is in, though the range could persist for 3-6 more months.
2 (01:05) **Bottom Signals: Capitulation Events** - The hosts discuss recent capitulation events (Satsuma, BitMEX closure) as classic bottom signals.
3 (02:20) **Strategy (MSTR) Under the Microscope** - A deep dive on MicroStrategy's capital structure and the limits of its preferred stock (STRK) strategy.
4 (04:48) **Strategy's Long Game: Investment Grade Debt** - Haar speculates on Strategy's ultimate goal of issuing unsecured, investment-grade debt.
5 (08:38) **The Case for a Double Bottom at $60k** - Askew presents the chart-based evidence for a bottom at the $60k level.
6 (12:11) **The AI Liquidity Drain: The Core Thesis** - The main chart analysis begins, showing the extreme disconnect between Bitcoin and Global M2 money supply.
7 (14:10) **Explaining the 2022 vs. 2025 Bear Markets** - Haar contrasts the easily explainable 2022 crash with the more confusing 50% decline of 2025-2026.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

“I would give myself 95% confidence that the bottom is in.”

Mitchell Askew and John Haar are on the show to get into whether Bitcoin’s price bottom is already in, and why this drawdown looks different.

In this episode we discuss the disconnect between record global liquidity and a Bitcoin price that has fallen 50%, the selling by OG holders, miners pivoting toward AI, and the potentially self-fulfilling nature of the four-year cycle. Selling pressure is becoming exhausted and we're now facing time pain, not price pain.

We also get into AI stealing Bitcoin’s bull run, what could force capital rotation, the future of Strategy and MetaPlanet, why blow-off tops and 75% drawdowns may be disappearing, and how Bitcoin mining is changing as major operators move into AI.

*Note, this was recorded before the recent Coldcard vulnerability. For more info watch this… https://youtu.be/rf-9rf93OpE

THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS:

FOLLOW:

Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles

Mitchell Askew: https://x.com/MitchellAskew

John Haar: https://x.com/jhaarblockware