Global Liquidity Has Peaked: What Happens to Bitcoin? | Michael Howell

July 22, 2026

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5 min read

Global Liquidity Has Peaked: What Happens to Bitcoin?

Money moves markets, not the other way around. That is the core conviction Michael Howell, managing director of CrossBorder Capital, brings to his analysis of global markets and Bitcoin. Howell argues that the traditional economic textbook picture—where capital markets raise new money for productive investment—has become dangerously misleading. What financial markets actually do in a world with $350–400 trillion of debt is refinance existing obligations. Since the average maturity of that debt is about five to six years, roughly $70–75 trillion needs to be rolled over every year. And when the system cannot refinance, central banks step in with liquidity. That is their real mandate, not inflation targeting or employment. The result is a persistent global liquidity cycle that dominates asset prices, including Bitcoin.

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What you'll learn

1 (01:01) **Introducing Michael Howell, the "Liquidity King"** - Howell is introduced by host Danny as a macro expert recommended by frequent guests Nick Bartier and James Lavish.
2 (01:32) **The Core Thesis: Money Moves Markets, Economics is Downstream** - Howell explains that money flows into financial markets first, then spills into the real economy.
3 (05:06) **Why Traditional Economics is "Unhelpful"** - Howell critiques academic economics for getting the causality backwards.
4 (07:54) **The Current Liquidity Cycle Has Peaked** - Howell states that the global liquidity cycle peaked in late Q3 2024 and is now rolling over.
5 (11:35) **What Drives the Liquidity Cycle? The Debt Refinancing Imperative** - Central banks are the main driver, but their primary goal is not to manage inflation or employment.
6 (14:57) **The Mechanism: Liquidity Spills from Finance to the Real Economy** - Howell explains the transmission mechanism of a liquidity cycle.
7 (18:49) **The 5-6 Year Cycle: Driven by Debt Maturity, Not a 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle** - Howell debunks the idea of a 4-year Bitcoin cycle, attributing it instead to the 5-6 year global liquidity cycle.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Michael Howell

Show Notes

“Cycles have no respect for trends.”

Michael Howell is on the show to explain why global liquidity, not Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, is the force driving Bitcoin, gold and global markets.

Michael argues that the liquidity cycle has already peaked and may not bottom until the second half of 2027. He warns that tighter liquidity could create further downside before the next major monetary expansion begins.

We get into the five-to-six-year debt refinancing cycle, why central banks are ultimately forced to keep supplying liquidity, China’s influence on the gold market, the growing debt maturity wall, and why the “great debasement” of Western currencies may still lie ahead.

THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS:

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Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny

Michael Howell: https://substack.com/@capitalwars