Bitcoin’s Next Rally Could Break the Cycle | Eric Yakes

In a recent episode of What Bitcoin Did, Eric Yakes argued that Bitcoin is approaching a structural inflection point where its four-year boom-bust cycle is breaking, driven by a new class of institutional buyers and a macroeconomic environment that positions it as a debasement trade. The conversation centered on how narratives, scale, and capital flows are reshaping Bitcoin’s risk profile and what that means for its long-term trajectory.

The Four-Year Cycle Is Breaking

Yakes, a venture capitalist and author, made the case that the traditional four-year halving cycle—marked by dramatic rallies followed by 80%+ drawdowns—is weakening. He pointed to the most recent cycle as evidence: Bitcoin’s peak was lower in percentage terms than previous cycles, and its bear market trough was only a 54% decline, far shallower than the 80%+ collapses of 2014 and 2018. “It went up less, it went down less,” Yakes observed. He attributed this to the emergence of a new buyer base: institutional investors who treat Bitcoin as a long-term allocation rather than a speculative trade. These passive buyers, he argued, are smoothing out the volatility by providing a persistent bid that changes the market’s structure. “That’s more of an institutional bid that’s happening in the market. That’s probably the best explanation for it,” he said, calling the old cycle narrative a “self-fulfilling prophecy”