Bitcoin’s Bull Market Is Back | Checkmate

Bitcoin's market behavior and the forces shaping it formed the core of this discussion between the host and on-chain analyst Checkmate. The conversation centered on whether the recent low near 60k marked the end of the bear market, how on-chain metrics reveal shifts in holder behavior, the implications of rising global yields, and the effects of proposed tax changes in Australia. Checkmate framed the analysis around observable data thresholds rather than predictions, stressing that confidence builds gradually through repeated tests of key levels and that sentiment changes only after multiple confirmations.

Bitcoin Market Phase and Probability Assessment

Checkmate placed the potential start of a new bull market at the February low near 60k, describing it as a price-pain capitulation where loss realization and fear peaked simultaneously. He assigned an 80 percent probability that this low holds, noting that prior cycles showed bottoms forming through slow multi-month grinds rather than immediate reversals. The remaining 20 percent chance allows for a test of 65k or 75k to establish a higher low. He contrasted this with recency bias from 2022, where a lower low occurred, but argued that current data does not support a repeat at the same scale. Technical signals such as weekly RSI reaching 26 and Bitcoin trading below its 200-day moving average were cited as conditions that h