What you'll learn

• 1 (01:19) **Trump Re-Declares War on Iran; Inflation Drops as a Warning Sign** - Bilyeu frames the episode's core tension: the US is back at war with Iran, yet inflation has cratered, and he argues this drop signals a sick economy, not a healthy one.
• 2 (06:22) **Why Oil Prices Didn't Spike: The China Demand Story** - Bilyeu dissects the oil market's surprising behavior, arguing that China’s hidden economic crisis, not a smooth transition to green energy, is the real driver of deflation.
• 3 (15:38) **The US Economy: A Stealth Recession** - Bilyeu argues the US is in a crisis-led deflation, driven by consumers who have exhausted their pandemic savings and maxed out credit cards.
• 4 (27:23) **The War Escalates: Trump's "Disproportionate Response"** - Bilyeu analyzes Trump’s new strategy of bombing Iran harder and longer, and why the energy market isn't reacting with panic.
• 5 (40:37) **Treasury Sanctions $130M in Crypto; Trump's "Toll" on the Strait** - Bilyeu reacts to two specific US policy moves, criticizing one as trivial and the other as absurd.
• 6 (41:56) **The Political Window: Inflation Drop as a Midterm Advantage** - Bilyeu outlines a scenario where falling inflation gives Trump a political win even as the underlying economy weakens.
• 7 (47:16) **Japan Imports Mexican Oil; A Weird Signal** - A news item about Japan receiving its first Mexican crude shipment since the war began sparks a discussion on global energy realignment.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app