AI Summary
5 min readLatino voters swing back
According to Pew Research, only 66 percent of Latino voters who backed Donald Trump in the 2024 election still approve of his job performance—a 27-point drop since the start of his second term. Today, 68 percent of Latinos support Democrats. That reversal is the backdrop for this episode of Today, Explained, which examines how the Latino electorate has shifted, what campaigns get wrong about reaching it, and whether Democrats can capitalize on the backlash.
The "swinging giant" replaces the "sleeping giant"
Stephanie Valencia, co-founder of the political research firm Equis, argues that the old label for Latino voters—"the sleeping giant"—should be retired. "We should be called the swinging giant," she says, based on the double-digit shifts this voting bloc has shown election to election. Roughly a third of Latino voters consider themselves independent or apolitical, and that nonpartisan flexibility makes them unpredictable.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:04) **The Swing is Real** - Trump's approval among Latino voters has cratered since 2024, dropping 27 points to just 66% of his former backers, while 68% of Latinos now support Democrats.
- 2 (00:45) **Defining the "Swinging Giant"** - Valencia argues the "sleeping giant" label is outdated; Latinos are a "swinging giant," with a third of voters identifying as independent or apolitical.
- 3 (02:54) **Shifts Across Gender and Generation** - Valencia breaks down that while Latino men got the attention, Latino women have actually shifted more over the last decade.
- 4 (03:48) **The Uniting Factor: The Economy** - Despite the nuances of origin and gender, the economy is the fundamental issue affecting all Latino voters.
- 5 (05:16) **Mistake #1: Translating Ads, Not Creating Them** - The single biggest campaign error is simply translating an English ad into Spanish, which reads as "Google Translate" rather than a genuine message.
- 6 (06:33) **Mistake #2: Bad Digital Targeting** - Campaigns use Spanish-language browser settings as a proxy for reaching Latino voters, missing a huge audience.
- 7 (07:42) **Warning Sign: The Mass Deportation Blind Spot** - In 2024, Project 2025 and mass deportation were not top of mind for voters, who were focused on the economy.
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Show Notes
Latino voters swung hard to the right in 2024. Now, they’re giving Dems another look.
This show was edited by Kasia Broussalian, fact checked by Esther Gim, mixed by Shannon Mahoney, video edited by Christopher Snyder, and hosted by Astead Herndon.
Photo caption: A Sun Valley resident votes at the polling station located at Our Lady of The Holy Church on election day at the Sun Valley's Latino district, Los Angeles County. Photo by Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images.
Editor's note: In her interview, Stephanie Valencia said that the zip code with the highest enrollment numbers for the ACA was in Miami. In fact, Miami is in the top five. South Florida overall, however, has led the nation with sign ups.
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