Today, Explained
Today, Explained

Can Dems flip state legislatures?

October 10, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In the midterm elections, most political attention focuses on Congress. But the battle for state legislatures may matter just as much—for healthcare, abortion rights, and even certifying the 2028 presidential election. Currently, Republicans hold a trifecta (governor plus both legislative chambers) in 23 states, while Democrats control 16. If Democrats flip just a handful of state legislatures in a blue wave, the majority of Americans would suddenly live under full Democratic control—with the potential to pass policies like minimum wage increases, marijuana legalization, and abortion protections.

Wisconsin offers a perfect case study. A famously 50-50 state, it was gerrymandered after Republican Governor Scott Walker's 2011 win, making it nearly impossible for Democrats to win a meaningful legislative majority. Even after Democrat Tony Evers won the governorship in 2018, he spent most of his time vetoing Republican bills rather than implementing his own agenda. But a newly elected state Supreme Court recently redrew the maps, giving Democrats a fresh opportunity. State Assemblywoman Francesca Hong, who narrowly lost her gubernatorial primary to Milwaukee's David Crawley, is now campaigning for down-ballot candidates, stressing the importance of winning a trifecta.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (00:00) **The Stakes of State Legislatures** - The episode opens by framing the midterm battle not just around Congress, but the often-overlooked fight for control of state legislatures, which have massive power over healthcare, abortion rights, and even presidential election certification.
  • 2 (01:26) **Why Wisconsin is the Perfect Case Study** - The episode zeroes in on Wisconsin, a 50-50 state where Republican gerrymandering after 2011 made it nearly impossible for Democrats to win a legislative majority.
  • 3 (03:58) **Meet the Unlikely Leader: Francesca Hong** - The episode introduces State Assemblywoman Francesca Hong, a Democratic Socialist and former gubernatorial candidate who lost her primary by about 4,000 votes but is now campaigning for down-ballot candidates to achieve a Democratic trifecta.
  • 4 (05:58) **What a Trifecta Actually Unlocks** - In an interview, Hong explains the concrete policy differences a Democratic trifecta would make in Wisconsin after 16 years of Republican legislative control.
  • 5 (08:00) **The Gerrymandering Excuse and the New Map** - Hong explains why Democrats haven't been able to make these economic arguments effectively until now: gerrymandering locked in Republican legislative majorities despite Wisconsin being a 50-50 state.
  • 6 (09:40) **The Data Center Divide: Hong vs. Crawley** - The host presses Hong on whether Democratic gubernatorial nominee David Crawley's more moderate position on data centers is enough for her supporters who see the issue as existential.
  • 7 (11:25) **Diagnosing the Primary Loss** - The host asks Hong to reflect on why she lost the gubernatorial primary, particularly given Governor Evers' endorsement of Crawley and the focus on her DSA label.

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Guests on this episode

Show Notes

Most of the focus in this year’s midterms is naturally on Congress. But the battle to control state legislatures matters just as much, if not more.

This show was edited by Kasia Broussalian, fact checked by Esther Gim, mixed by Shannon Mahoney, video edited by Christopher Snyder, and hosted by Astead Herndon.

Photo caption: Francesca Hong during a primary election night watch party in Madison, Wisconsin. Photo by Talia Sprague/Bloomberg via Getty Images

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