Will The Iran War Crash The Markets? | Michael Lebowitz

March 8, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

🎙️ The Voices & The Context

The Format: Casual interview-style market recap podcast with host leading discussion and guest sharing charts/technical insights.
The Key Players:
- Host: Adam Taggart, Thoughtful Money founder—provides context on macro events like the US-Israel-Iran war and jobs data.
- Guest: Mike Liebowitz, RIA portfolio manager—35+ years experience; fills in for Lance Roberts, delivers transparent portfolio updates and technical analysis.
The Vibe: Educational and calmly analytical amid geopolitical chaos—downplays panic, emphasizes data-driven discipline over fear.

🗝️ Key Themes & Topics

Main discussions revolve around navigating markets during the US-Israel-Iran war, technical signals, sector rotations, and economic data like weak jobs numbers.

Topic 1: Iran War & Oil Shock – Oil spiked to $90/barrel amid Strait of Hormuz threats; markets shrugged it off as short-term, with minimal stock volatility; Fed ignores energy in core inflation; energy stocks lagged due to high valuations/hedging.
Topic 2: Technical Analysis & Portfolio Positioning – S&P in arcing range near key moving averages (100-day, 200-day); bonds face deficit fears over flight-to-safety; dollar strengthening hurts globals; RIA trimmed 6-7% exposure but portfolios near highs via diversification.
**Topic 3: Value vs. Growth Rot

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **🎙️ Introduction: Mike Liebowitz**
2 (01:40) **Portfolio Positioning Amid Geopolitical Tensions**
3 (03:37) **Iran War Impact on Oil and Markets**
4 (10:45) **Geopolitical Events: Short-Term Noise vs. Long-Term Assets**
5 (17:38) **Oil Price Surge vs. Energy Stocks**
6 (22:52) **Market Behavior and Trading Advice**
7 (28:49) **Bond Market Technicals**

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

And they've weakened since the outbreak of war in Iran?Could they be on the verge of a larger correction?While unknowable for certain, portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and his team at RIA are starting to decrease their equity exposure.He and I discuss why, as well as the recent disappointing payroll data, rising private credit fears, the strengthening US dollar and falling bond prices, as well as his firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

LAST CHANCE! REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S SPRING ONLINE CONFERENCE AT THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT PRICE at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceStock prices have been stuck in a trading range for five months now.#jobsreport #iranwar #privatecredit _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.