What Does The Post-War Future Of The US Dollar Look Like? | Brent Johnson

May 1, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

“Nobody has any nuance anymore,” Brent Johnson says early in this conversation. “It’s either something’s a total failure or a total success. The reality is always somewhere in the middle.” That warning sets the tone for a wide-ranging discussion about the US-Iran war, the dollar’s future, and the real power competition unfolding beneath the headlines.

The war in context: dominance without perfection

Johnson pushes back hard against the narrative that the US has proven itself a “paper tiger” in its conflict with Iran. On a military basis, he argues, the US has dominated — flying missions unopposed, blockading the Gulf, and taking Iranian oil off the board. “Nobody of any substance goes into a fight without expectation of getting hit,” he says. “There’s a difference between getting hit and getting knocked out.” The fact that Iran remains defiant does not mean the US is losing; it means the operation was never going to be a three-day affair. Johnson notes that this confrontation has been war-gamed for decades precisely because it is difficult. The decision to act, he believes, came down to timing and opportunity — a set of circumstances that aligned with a leader willing to make the bet.

The real game: US versus China

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What you'll learn

1 (00:02) **Introduction & The Core Debate** - Host Adam Taggart introduces Brent Johnson and frames the central question: Will the US war with Iran accelerate de-dollarization or reinforce dollar dominance?
2 (08:56) **Brent’s Framework: Nuance Over Extremes** - Johnson rejects binary thinking, arguing that the truth is always in the middle and that the current situation is no exception.
3 (13:18) **The US is Not a Paper Tiger** - Johnson directly counters the narrative that the US is militarily ineffective or a declining power.
4 (18:13) **The Historical Aberration of Globalization** - The conversation shifts to the long-term historical context, explaining why current events seem shocking.
5 (21:34) **Money as an Instrument of Power** - Johnson defines a key concept in his analytical framework: money is not just a medium of exchange but a tool of power.
6 (23:02) **The UAE Leaving OPEC & The Petrodollar** - Adam asks about the significance of the UAE leaving OPEC and what it means for the petrodollar system.
7 (30:00) **The Grand Game: US vs. China** - The discussion deepens on the strategic rationale for the war, connecting it directly to US-China negotiations.

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Guests on this episode

Brent Johnson

Show Notes

Many think the war in Iran is weakening (some claim ruining) the prospects for the US generally and the dollar specifically.Others argue the exact opposite.So which is more likely?To make sense of it all for us, Brent Johnson, develop of the Dollar Milkshake Theory and CEO of Santiago Capital joined me today for a livestream.It was an extremely thoughtful discussion of not just where the dollar is likely headed, but also of the dynamics of global power.#dollar #iranwar #fiatcurrency _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.