"We're Worried About 2027" - Stocks To Plunge 30%? | Chance Finucane @OxbowAdvisors

October 25, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, told Adam Taggart on Thoughtful Money that his firm is "pretty concerned about 2027." The data they use to map out where things could go "only looks out maybe the first eight months or so of 2027 so far, but looks pretty concerning to us." Finucane said he would not be surprised if the stock market fell 30% or more, and the firm is positioning portfolios to get through that storm so it can deploy capital in the buying opportunity that follows.

A Market of Two Halves

The current market is deeply bifurcated. Finucane estimates that about 30 of the S&P 500's stocks — the AI beneficiaries — account for roughly half the index's market cap. The other 450-plus stocks are the rest of the economy. "They are moving opposite of each other," he said. The majority of stocks in the S&P are already down at least 20% from their all-time highs. Oxbow avoids the AI names because the downside is too steep: tech stocks could fall 30%, semiconductors 50%. Instead, the firm focuses on reasonably valued non-AI positions. A silver lining is that when AI stocks pull back, investors rotate into everything else. "October's actually been a good month for our long-term growth stock portfolio," Finucane noted, because of that rotation.

Why 2027 Looks Different

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What you'll learn

1 (00:52) **Concern for 2027** - Chance opens with the firm’s central worry: a potential 30%+ market drop in the first half of 2027, which they see as a manageable risk and a possible buying opportunity in the back half.
2 (01:47) **Bifurcated Market Overview** - Adam frames the current market as a “tale of two markets,” with a small group of AI stocks powering the S&P 500 while the majority of stocks are down significantly.
3 (03:23) **Why Oxbow Avoids AI Stocks** - Chance explains the firm’s position: AI stocks are too expensive, with potential downside of 30% for tech and 50% for semiconductors, which is unacceptable risk.
4 (05:42) **Warning Signs in Tech** - Chance details technical deterioration in AI-related sectors, noting that memory semiconductors and the Korean stock index are already down 40% from highs.
5 (09:33) **Where Capital Is Being Shifted** - Oxbow is balancing its stock portfolio across many sectors, adding to energy, healthcare, and real estate services, while cutting back on more volatile positions.
6 (11:04) **Bond Strategy in a Rising Yield Environment** - Chance discusses the firm’s cautious bond approach: they are locking in yields on 2-3 year treasuries, especially near 5%, but refuse to go further out on the curve.
7 (14:19) **Storm Watch for 2027** - Adam asks about the “storm watch” level, and Chance reiterates high concern for 2027, with the firm reducing activity and staying in high-quality positions.

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Guests on this episode

Adam Taggart

Show Notes

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Chance Finucane, CIO at Oxbow Advisors, is worried about 2027.

It would not surprise him to see the S&P enter a true bear market.

So how is Oxbow allocating capital right now for its high net worth clients?

To find out, watch this video.

#marketcorrection #bearmarket #aistocks

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