Wall Of Worry Puts Stocks At Risk Of Screaming Higher On Any Good News | Lance Roberts

March 28, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Lance Roberts and Adam Taggart discuss market volatility amid Middle East tensions driving oil price spikes, emphasizing technical signals, earnings trends, and contained risks in credit and bonds. Roberts highlights how fear positions the market for a sharp rebound on positive news, while stressing the need to monitor sustainability of current declines.

Technical Breakdown Below 200-Day Moving Average

Markets recently dipped below the S&P 500's 200-day moving average (DMA), a key long-term trend line, after briefly rallying above it on Monday—prompting Roberts to sell into strength and raise cash by 5% in portfolios. Historical analysis shows breaks below the 200 DMA lasting under four weeks typically lead to quick recoveries: average one-month returns are negative, but three- to twelve-month returns turn positive. Sustained breaks over four weeks, however, correlate with deeper downturns, as seen in dot-com (2000), financial crisis (2008), EU debt crisis (2011), and Russia-Ukraine (2022), with one-month average returns of -5.3%.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:45) **Market Volatility Amid Iran Conflict** - Hosts discuss ongoing war uncertainty driving daily swings and repricing of stocks
2 (04:57) **200-Day Moving Average Break Analysis** - Lance explains historical significance of breaks below 200 DMA
3 (06:36) **Rising S&P 500 Earnings Expectations** - EPS forecasts accelerating despite market drop, improving valuations to <20x
4 (07:34) **Oil Price Impact on CPI and Inflation** - Energy ~6.25% of CPI, spread across categories; unlikely to spike headline inflation
5 (11:39) **Oil Shocks and Economic Vulnerability** - Lacey Hunt keynote highlights oil shock severity and pre-existing economic weakness as causes
6 (13:27) **Potential Quick War Resolution** - Hosts caution against assuming quagmire; US may declare victory soon for political reasons
7 (17:18) **Extreme Fear Signals Bottoming** - Proprietary fear-greed index and CNN index at extreme fear levels, akin to April lows/financial crisis

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Show Notes

There is so much short-term worry in the financial markets right now, that even a whiff of good news could send stocks into a face-ripping rally claims portfolio manager Lance Roberts.That's not to say there still aren't reasons to be concerned that lower prices may lie ahead.But don't ignore the reflexible upward potential of stock prices given how dominant the fear trade has been over the past few weeks.Lance and I discuss the odds of such a rally, plus discuss rising credit spreads, rising bond yields, high oil prices and other implications of the Iran war. And of course, we discuss Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

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