Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Value Stocks Set To Outperform Tech Into The End Of Year? | Lance Roberts

October 10, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

On this episode of Thoughtful Money, portfolio manager Lance Roberts argues that the setup for the end of 2024 favors a rotation out of high-flying mega-cap tech stocks and into beaten-down value sectors. The central thesis is not that the broad market indices will collapse, but that the market’s internal dynamics are shifting, creating a compelling opportunity for a tactical trade into areas like financials, utilities, and small-cap value.

The Divergence Beneath the Surface

Roberts begins by highlighting a critical disconnect that has been building for months. While the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 recently notched an all-time high, the equal-weight S&P 500 tells a very different story. In the equal-weight index, where each company has the same influence regardless of size, performance has been flat to negative. This gap is the key signal. "We've triggered a buy signal," Roberts says. "This is where we started rebalancing portfolios because of this big kind of deviation in performance between the equal weight index and the market cap weighted index."

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:26) **Opening & Setup** - Adam Taggart welcomes Lance Roberts of RIA for a weekly market recap, noting San Francisco's beauty despite its troubles.
  • 2 (04:04) **Conference Faculty Announcement** - Adam lists the all-star lineup for the upcoming Thoughtful Money fall online conference, including Lacy Hunt, Neil Howe, and Jan Van Eck.
  • 3 (07:15) **Market Divergence & Rotation Thesis** - Lance explains that while cap-weighted indices are at highs, underlying weakness persists, justifying RIA's shift from growth to value.
  • 4 (11:03) **Year-End Outlook: Historical Pattern** - Lance expects choppy markets through midterms, then a strong finish, citing historical midterm-year averages of ~6% return for the S&P 500.
  • 5 (21:35) **Bond Yields: Current State & Drivers** - Lance explains that 10-year yields are stuck around 5.0-5.3%, set by real growth, inflation, and a term premium—not by debt/deficit fears.
  • 6 (25:04) **Why Buy Bonds Now? The Lock-In Argument** - Lance argues that buying 5%+ treasuries is compelling for income and principal protection, especially for retirees.
  • 7 (30:44) **Bond ETFs vs. Individual Bonds** - Lance warns against using bond ETFs for capital preservation, as they are stock-like trades on rate direction.

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Guests on this episode

Lance Roberts

Show Notes

LOCK IN YOUR TICKET FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceWORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE Portfolio manager Lance Roberts calculates that, more likely than not, stocks will rally into the end of the year.But he thinks rather than Tech being the principal driver of the rally, it will be value stocks.They've been bruised by rising yields and appear set for a recovery rally.If bond yields cool off a bit, that will add additional propellant behind them.For all this and everything else that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap.#growthstocks #bondyields #municipalbonds _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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