Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Time To Start Getting REALLY Bullish? | Tom McClellan

September 17, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

“I am not bullish today, but I am looking for the moment probably within the next week to turn bullish, and then I’m gonna be bullish as all get out.” That is how Tom McClellan, creator of the McClellan Oscillator, opened his conversation with Adam Taggart on Thoughtful Money. The episode, recorded within hours of the latest Federal Reserve announcement, was a deep dive into the technical patterns and cyclical forces that McClellan believes are aligning for a powerful market move. His argument is not based on macroeconomics or earnings forecasts but on a set of long-standing, data-driven correlations that he argues investors ignore at their peril.

The Presidential Cycle and the "Third Year" Effect

McClellan’s central thesis rests on the presidential cycle pattern, which he constructs by chopping the market into four-year chunks starting from each election day (November 1st) and averaging them together. The result is a remarkably consistent pattern: the first two years of a term are generally sideways, the third year is almost always a strong up year, and the fourth year is also upward but more volatile. “We’re about to head into year three, which is a wonderful time for the stock market,” McClellan said. “In fact, it’s nearly always up.”

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:32) **Market Character & Presidential Cycle Framework** - Tom McClellan describes the current strong market and introduces his "Rapunzel chart" for the four-year presidential cycle pattern.
  • 2 (05:17) **Current Market Timing & Bottoming Process** - Tom identifies the current period as the "squishy bottoming" zone for the market, with a bottom expected before the midterm election.
  • 3 (08:10) **Election Certainty vs. Outcome** - The host clarifies that the market's positive reaction to the midterm elections is driven by certainty, not the specific result.
  • 4 (10:29) **Decennial Pattern & "Year Seven" Effect** - Tom introduces the 10-year decennial pattern and the specific bullish effect for years ending in seven.
  • 5 (14:37) **Advance-Decline Line as a Bullish Signal** - Tom explains that the strong Advance-Decline (A/D) line is a positive condition for the stock market.
  • 6 (17:30) **Corporate High-Yield Bond Divergence** - Tom identifies a bearish divergence in the corporate high-yield bond market as a key concern, but sees it nearing an end.
  • 7 (22:31) **Margin Debt and the Seven-Year Cycle** - Tom analyzes the record-high margin debt, placing it in the context of a seven-year cycle.

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Guests on this episode

Adam Taggart

Show Notes

LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceTechnical analyst Tom McClellan is poised to become "bullish as all get out"Why?For starters, the third year of a Presidential administration, on average, tends to the best of the four year cycle. And the party usually starts a few weeks before the midterm elections (i.e., very soon)Second, many of the factors that have been areas of concern for him seem to be approaching their end. So he expects the markets to have fewer headwinds ahead.Which is why he's watching the tape closely over the coming week or two, looking for the "game on" indicator to get really bullish.For all the details and charts why, watch this video.#technicalanalysis #midtermelections #marketrally _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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