Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Time To Buy Bonds? | Lance Roberts

October 3, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In the third quarter, revisions to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—brought the average inflation rate down to 1.6%. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts argues that this data suggests the Fed may have already made a policy mistake by hiking rates into what was largely an oil-price spike, not a broad inflationary breakout. On the same day, a weak payroll print and downward revisions to previous employment data reinforced the view that the economy is cooling beneath the surface of headline stock indices. For Roberts, the combination creates a rare window: bonds are offering their most attractive risk-adjusted returns in years, and investors who ignore them are missing the signal.

The inflation picture is more nuanced than headlines suggest

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:00) **Opening & Context from Adam's Dinner with Tom Hoenig** - Adam shares insights from spending the evening with former KC Fed President Tom Hoenig.
  • 2 (04:53) **Lance's Counterpoint on Fiscal Discipline & Economic Growth** - Lance pushes back on the idea that austerity is a simple fix, noting that spending drives economic growth.
  • 3 (07:31) **Where Does the Debt Trajectory End?** - The discussion moves to the potential terminal outcomes of the current fiscal path.
  • 4 (10:12) **Productive vs. Non-Productive Debt** - Lance introduces a critical distinction for evaluating government spending.
  • 5 (13:48) **The Three AI Outcomes & The Case for Optimism** - Lance outlines the three possible scenarios for the AI boom and explains why pessimism is a losing investment strategy.
  • 6 (16:19) **The Geopolitical AI Race & Its Implications** - Adam connects the AI investment boom to a global power struggle between the US and China.
  • 7 (20:46) **The Gold Standard Debate & Judy Shelton's New Role** - Adam shares news that monetary hawk Judy Shelton has been hired as a counselor to Treasury Secretary Bessent.

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Guests on this episode

Lance Roberts

Show Notes

ONLY 1 DAY LEFT TO LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conference"Today's bond yields are a gift", says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.If -- and that's a big if -- they're close to peaking out, this may be a good opportunity to lock in attractive real returns for years, while also potentially riding the price appreciation of the underlying bonds.We go deep into the math on this, as well as discuss the latest jobs data & odds for a major rotation of capital from growth to value.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap#bonds #bondyields #jobsreport _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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