Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

This Is A Really Difficult Market To Navigate | Lance Roberts

September 19, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in late September, a move the market had priced in at a 93% probability. But for portfolio manager Lance Roberts, the hike itself was less interesting than what it reveals about the shifting structure of financial markets. The old world of "there is no alternative" to equities is over, and a new regime has begun—one where bonds finally offer genuine competition for capital. The result is a market that is grinding sideways, whipsawing traders who try to chase daily rotations, and setting the stage for a long period of subdued equity returns that most investors are not prepared for.

Why the Fed's hike matters less than the bond market's message

The Fed's unanimous decision to hike was, in Roberts' view, largely a "PR hike"—a symbolic gesture to appease market expectations rather than a response to genuine economic overheating. The real story is in the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield briefly cracked above 5%. That move is not being driven by the Fed or by strong economic data, Roberts argues. Instead, it reflects "term premium"—a risk premium embedded in long-term bonds due to headline fears about oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal deficits. The fundamental drivers of the economy (roughly 2.1% real growth plus 2.4% core inflation) suggest the 10-year should trade closer to 4.6%. The current yield above that lev

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:00) **Market Navigation Challenge** - Lance describes the current market's erratic daily rotation between defensive staples and technology, making active trading nearly impossible.
  • 2 (02:32) **Fed Rate Hike Analysis** - The Fed's unanimous 25 basis point hike was a "PR move" to appease market expectations, not a response to economic data.
  • 3 (05:10) **The End of TINA and the Rise of TIAGA** - The "There Is No Alternative" era is over; bonds now offer a compelling alternative to equities, changing portfolio construction.
  • 4 (08:12) **Higher Rates: Good or Bad?** - Adam and Lance debate whether higher yields are a net positive for the economy or a looming threat.
  • 5 (12:37) **Capital Rotation from Equities to Credit** - Massive inflows are shifting from stocks into bonds, as shown by year-to-date flow data where equities are at the bottom of the list.
  • 6 (15:52) **The Term Premium "Free Yield"** - The 10-year Treasury yield (~5%) is trading above its fundamental drivers (~4.6%), creating a temporary "free yield" that will eventually collapse.
  • 7 (18:36) **Why Equities Haven't Crashed Yet** - Despite rising interest rates, stocks are holding up because corporate balance sheets are still strong.

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Guests on this episode

Lance Roberts

Show Notes

LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conference"This is a really difficult market to navigate", cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts.That's because there's no clear trend at the moment. In times like these, he recommends investors do what's hardest for them: Nothing.For the details why & when he thinks this period of uncertainty will likely end, watch this new Market Recap.#midtermelection #volatility #marketuncertainty _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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