The Market Just Broke Below A Critical Support Level | Lance Roberts

March 22, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average this week for the first time since last April, after 214 days above it, amid volatility from spiking oil prices tied to the Iran war. Lance Roberts, portfolio manager at Real Investment Advice, joined host Adam Taggart for a weekly recap, downplaying panic but noting the signal of lingering weakness. They also covered steady earnings estimates despite oil risks, overblown private credit fears revealing buying opportunities, and New York Governor Kathy Hochul's reversal on chasing away high earners.

S&P 500's Critical Break Signals Weakness, Not Collapse

The market closed below the 200-day moving average on Thursday and stayed there Friday, a level Roberts tracks closely as a trend gauge. Markets have retraced fully to November lows via Fibonacci levels, with broad breakdowns in stocks, precious metals, crypto, emerging markets, and international assets—except energy. Short-term oversold conditions and bearish sentiment suggest a reflexive rally soon, potentially back to 6,720-6,750, but Roberts advises selling into it to raise cash, given trapped longs from prior supports at 6,750-6,900.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:58) **Market Breaks 200-Day Moving Average** - First breach since April after 214 days, signaling potential weakness but not panic
2 (05:05) **Earnings Estimates Rise Despite Oil Spike** - LSEG data shows upward revisions through year-end amid Iran war
3 (05:32) **Oil's Limited US Impact** - WTI under $100, only 1% US supply via Strait of Hormuz; US production dominant
4 (07:15) **WTI vs Brent Spread Widens** - Arbitrage pressure from global buyers but refining differences delay convergence
5 (13:00) **Market Reprices Valuations** - Forward P/E drops from 23x to 20x on 5% price decline; E stable for now
6 (18:24) **US Energy Gains Long-Term** - War shifts demand to US/Canada; $56B new Indo-Pacific contracts
7 (26:25) **Houston Oil Sentiment** - Producers partying but rig counts steady; booms historically short

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Show Notes

PURCHASE THE REPLAY OF THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S SPRING ONLINE CONFERENCE at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceThe S&P just broke below its 200 Daily Moving Average, which is a critical support level.This substantially increases the odds that stocks could really start to drop materially from here.Lance and I discuss which indicators he's be monitoring most closely over the next few weeks to determine whether a true break down is indeed starting now or not. We also discuss the impact of spiking oil prices, the concerns of private credit and his firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.#oilprice #iranwar #privatecredit _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.