Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

The Market Is Mispricing The Inevitable | Peter Tchir

August 16, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

“When you talk to particularly large asset managers, there’s still a reluctance almost to believe that the end of global trade globalization is over,” says Peter Tchir, Head of MacroStrategy at Academy Securities. “And many of the people who are senior rose to those levels because they embraced globalization. And I think they’re having difficulty seeing and believing that this kind of production for security is not just gonna go away.”

That tension—between a market psychology still anchored in the old world and the rising forces of deglobalization—runs through Tchir’s entire conversation with Adam Taggart on Thoughtful Money. Tchir argues that the market is systematically mispricing three major trends: the Fed’s data problem, the geopolitical stalemate with Iran, and the accelerating shift toward “production for security” (ProSec). Each has real implications for where investors should—and shouldn’t—put money.

The Fed Is Looking at the Wrong Data

Tchir believes the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh is making a mistake—but not the one most people think. “I think we are gonna realize that the data task force is possibly the most that’s been done in years, if not decades,” he says. “I think we look at bad data.”

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (03:24) **Peter's Three Big Trends** - Tchir lays out the three macro themes dominating his attention: flawed Fed data, the strategic vs. tactical geopolitical landscape, and the accelerating shift to production for security.
  • 2 (07:22) **Warsh's Fed: A Data Revolution, Not a Hawkish Pivot** - Tchir explains that Kevin Warsh's focus on inflation is real, but he will likely use it to discredit the old metrics rather than to justify rate hikes.
  • 3 (12:44) **Why Yields Stay High: The Crowding Out of Treasuries** - Even if the Fed doesn't tighten, long-term yields face structural upward pressure from a flood of competing debt.
  • 4 (16:08) **The Trade: Own Hyperscaler Debt, Not Treasuries** - Tchir's portfolio solution to the crowding-out problem is to overweight high-quality corporate debt over sovereign debt.
  • 5 (18:33) **Oil Outlook: The Siege Strategy is Unlikely to Work** - Tchir draws on his team's military and intelligence analysis to argue the US will back off its aggressive military and economic campaign against Iran.
  • 6 (25:18) **The Gulf Allies Are Capitulating, Not Uniting** - Tchir explains why the US lost the momentum to build a lasting coalition against Iran.
  • 7 (30:28) **The Drone Gap: America's Asymmetric Weakness** - The US is failing to develop its own asymmetric drone warfare capability, which is a key vulnerability.

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Guests on this episode

Adam Taggart

Show Notes

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comPeter Tchir is shocked how many big investors haven't accepted the end of globalization.As a result, the market is mispricing assets -- assuming the future is going to resemble the past.For those who understand the new ProSec era, that means key assets can be picked up at discount right now.To learn which ones Peter is most focused on, watch this video.#globalization #nationalsecurity #commodities _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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