The Fed Is Making A Big Mistake - Get Ready For More Inflation | Jim Bianco

December 30, 2025

AI Summary

5 min read

🎙️ The Voices & The Context

The Format: This interview between host Adam Taggart and macro strategist Jim Bianco dives deep into 2026 economic forecasts, blending data-driven analysis with forward-looking speculation on policy impacts and market shifts in a probing, optimistic-yet-cautious tone.
The Format: An interview.
The Key Players:
- Guest: Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, renowned for his sharp takes on fixed income, inflation trends, and macroeconomic puzzles like labor supply dynamics; he's a returning guest offering institutional-grade insights during his holiday break in Scottsdale.

🗝️ Key Themes & Topics

The episode unpacks 2026's economic outlook through labor data revisions, persistent inflation, policy missteps, and tech-driven disruptions, emphasizing overlooked factors like immigration over tariffs.

Topic 1: Labor Market & Immigration Overhaul – Bianco argues the Fed is misreading jobs data amid plunging immigration (potentially contracting U.S. population by 0.4%, unseen since 1918 Spanish flu), lowering job creation needs to -70k/month; recent BLS overstatements (60k/month via birth-death model) mean weak payrolls are "fine," but rate cuts risk inflation.
Topic 2: Sticky Inflation & Affordability Crisis – Inflation lingers at 2.7-3% (unacceptable post-COVID)

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What you'll learn

1 **(00:00) 🎙️ Introduction: Jim Bianco**
2 **(03:51) Immigration Policy's Oversized Economic Impact**
3 **(06:56) Fed Misreading Labor Market, Overcutting Rates**
4 **(11:29) Tariffs Mildly Inflationary, Immigration Deflationary on Supply**
5 **(16:34) Sticky Secular Inflation (~3%), Not Disinflation**
6 **(23:42) Fiscal Spending Primary Inflation Culprit**
7 **(27:27) Housing Affordability Requires Supply Surge**

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Some analysts fear the coming year could be pretty gruesome, as a slowing economy get compounded by rising unemployment, right as tapped-out consumers buckle under the high cost of living & rising debt delinquencies.The Adminsitration however, projects a much more confident outlook.One of booming economic growth, contained inflation, lower taxes, more jobs and meaningful government cost containment.Which future is more likely?To discuss, we have the good fortune today to welcome back to the program Jim Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, LLC.

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