The Bullish Case For The Housing Market | Jason Hartman

September 3, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Bullish Case for Housing: Why the Doom Loop Isn't Coming

Real estate investor Jason Hartman has been involved in over 10,000 transactions across 11 states, and he thinks the crash prophets keep getting the housing market wrong for a simple reason: they focus on the wrong metric. Most people obsess over price, but Hartman argues that real estate is a "multi-dimensional asset class" where investors can earn money many ways. And on price itself, he says the data simply doesn't support a crash scenario.

The Sink Metaphor: Why Inventory Stays Tight

Hartman offers a vivid mental model for understanding today's market—imagine a bathroom sink. The faucet represents new listings coming onto the market, and it's running at a trickle. The basin is existing inventory, which sits at about 65% of what would be considered normal. The drain represents buyer demand, and it's roughly 35–40% plugged up—buyers can't afford homes at current prices and rates.

This dynamic explains why the market feels frozen. Transaction volume is way down, yet prices have still managed to rise about 1.5% over the past year. That's not a sign of health, Hartman acknowledges, but it's also not a crash. The reason prices haven't fallen more is that the only people who can transact right now are relatively affluent, pulling the average sale price upward even as the broader market struggles.

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What you'll learn

1 (01:06) **The Real Estate Game Is Multi-Dimensional** - Hartman opens by arguing that price is only one metric in a multi-dimensional asset class that can be earned from in many ways.
2 (03:44) **The Sink Metaphor for Market Dynamics** - Hartman introduces a visual model for understanding the current balance of supply, demand, and inventory.
3 (06:58) **Why Prices Are Still Rising Despite a Frozen Market** - Hartman and Taggart discuss the disconnect between low transaction volume and still-rising prices.
4 (08:25) **The Underbuilt Entry-Level Market and Record Multi-Family Supply** - Builders avoided entry-level construction after 2008, but a record wave of new apartments is now suppressing rent growth.
5 (11:15) **The Case for Manufactured Housing** - Hartman argues that America must accept modern manufactured housing to solve the supply crisis.
6 (16:43) **Rents Are Disinflating – Why Aren't Home Prices Falling?** - Taggart asks why falling rents haven't dragged home prices down, as economic theory would predict.
7 (19:11) **The "Rage Delisting" vs. Distressed Seller Trend** - Hartman analyzes why sellers are pulling homes off the market rather than cutting prices.

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Show Notes

LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceFrom audience feedback, a small but vocal minority has suggested the housing experts who regularly appear on this channel are "too bearish".Well, here's your opportunity to hear the bull case from an optimistic housing analyst.Jason Hartman, CEO of Empowered Invest and Real Estate tools, has been involved in several thousand real estate transactions and has owned income properties in 11 states and 17 cities. And he joins us today to share his analysis (and a slew of supporting charts) explaining why he thinks a material home price correction is NOT in the cards anytime soon.To hear it all, watch this video.#realestate #housingmarket #homeprices _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.