Stocks To Crash By 50%+, Silver To Surge To $300+? | Michael Oliver

May 5, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Michael Oliver, a technical analyst using Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA), argues that the U.S. stock market is in the final stages of its largest bubble since 2009, setting up a multi-year bear market, while commodities—especially precious metals—offer a counter-trend opportunity as money rotates out of weakening stocks and bonds.

Stock Market Topping Signals

Oliver views the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 as topping since early last year, with recent rallies as transient spikes typical of laborious tops like 2000 and 2007. Monthly momentum charts show both indices breaking multi-year upward channels since mid-2022, forming flat "structures" around their 36-month averages (red lines on charts). A close below these—S&P around 6,060-6,785, Nasdaq about 20% lower—confirms downside, potentially lasting 2.5-3 years with 50-80% declines based on history (e.g., Nasdaq 82% drop post-dot-com, S&P 50% in 2000-2002). Shorter-term, he expects stalling by mid-quarter, oozing back under 7,000 by quarter-end. Bellwethers like Microsoft show fractured annual momentum; Apple nears it. Headlines like tariffs or wars cause false signals—markets need embedded fundamental shifts, not transients.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Stock Market Bubble Topping** - Oliver opens with thesis of historic S&P bubble since 2009 topping, driving shift to commodities
2 (01:21) **Guest Intro: Michael Oliver** - Technical analyst from Momentum Structural Analysis returns to discuss topping process
3 (02:27) **S&P Topping Evidence** - Year-long topping like 2000/2007, laborious not sudden; monthly bars cluster before spike
4 (08:34) **NASDAQ Mirrors S&P** - Similar channel break, momentum not confirming new highs
5 (13:17) **Bear Market Expectations** - Multi-year decline likely 50%+ like history (1929, dotcom 82% Nasdaq)
6 (14:29) **Commodities Bull Setup** - Bloomberg index deflated to 50s (vs 237 in 2008), now surging past 2022 highs
7 (17:38) **Capital Rotation Thesis** - Stocks/bonds break drives flow to commodities as low-risk/high-reward

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Show Notes

The S&P 500 clocked its best month in 6 years in April.Is that momentum likely to continue?And will the volatility in many commodities due to the closure of the Persan Gulf likely to become more extreme the longer war extends?And what about bonds? Will the start of the Kevin Warsh era at the Federal Reserve bring any relief to yields?To address these pressing questions, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program technical analyst and author Michael Oliver, founder of market research firm Momentum Structural Analysis.

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