Stephanie Pomboy: Unemployment Rate To Spike In 2026?
December 17, 2025
AI Summary
5 min read🎙️ The Voices & The Context
- The Format: This monthly macro update blends host-led probing with expert analysis in a conversational interview format, tying personal chit-chat to high-stakes economic warnings on debt, markets, and recessions. The tone is sharply analytical yet warmly collegial, like two savvy friends dissecting the economy over coffee amid holiday cheer.
- The Format: Casual yet data-driven interview.
- The Key Players:
- Guest: Stephanie Pomboy – Renowned macroeconomist and founder of Macro Mavens, famous for prescient calls on recessions, corporate debt walls, and gold's rise; her bearish insights challenge Wall Street optimism.
- Host: Adam Taggart – Founder of Thoughtful Money, steering the discussion with charts, live audience Q&A, and personal anecdotes, fostering a sense of community among macro skeptics.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:00) **🎙️ Introduction: Stephanie Pomboy**
- 2 (02:31) **Super Terrific Day Conference Promo**
- 3 (08:12) **AI CapEx Fuels Capital Competition**
- 4 (15:02) **Debt Maturity Wall & Crowding Out Risks**
- 5 (18:31) **Unique Backdrop: Massive Public Deficits**
- 6 (20:05) **Debt Saturation & Yield Pressure**
- 7 (24:36) **Fed's "Ample Reserves" = Stealth QE**
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Show Notes
Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy returned for a livestream this morning.In it, we discussed the gargantuan debt financing needs of the AI sector and how the competition for funds across public & private companies AND the federal government is highly likely to create undesirable trade-offs.We also talked about the recent Fed moves and how they signal all is not well in the financial plumbing, the rising unemployment rate, whether the current bull run in the precious metals is likely to continues, and Stephanie’s thoughts on the energy sector.
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