Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Stephanie Pomboy: Is The Iran War Creating A Global Scramble For Hard Assets?

April 16, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In the first few minutes of their conversation, macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy zeroes in on a single number that crystallizes her entire outlook: the President asked for an additional $1.5 trillion in defense spending almost immediately after the Iran conflict began. For Pomboy, that request was the real story. It confirmed that any hope of restraining federal deficits had vanished, and it set the stage for the monetary and credit dynamics she has been warning about for years.

The War's Real Impact: Deficits, Not Oil

Pomboy argues that the Iran war's most important economic consequence is not the spike in oil prices but the permanent expansion of fiscal spending it justifies. Before the war, there was a fragile hope—discussed at a conference she attended with strategist Tom Hunick—that Congress might slow spending enough to let the Federal Reserve gradually shrink its balance sheet without disrupting bond markets. The war erased that hope. "The deficit is absolutely never, ever, ever going to go lower," Pomboy says. "Quite the contrary, it's probably gonna go higher, irrespective of how quickly the US economy is growing."

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:16) **Welcome & Macro Setup** - Adam Taggart introduces the monthly conversation with Stephanie Pomboy, setting the stage for a discussion on the Iran war, hard assets, and market disconnects.
  • 2 (04:04) **Why the War Accelerates the Hard Asset Thesis** - Pomboy explains how the war reinforces her long-standing case for hard assets, which was already built on currency debasement.
  • 3 (07:05) **Gold’s Paradox: Why It Fell During the Crisis** - Pomboy dissects why gold sold off during the war instead of rallying, identifying a forced liquidation dynamic.
  • 4 (13:57) **The Policy Response: Warsh, Rates, and the Missing Crisis** - Adam and Pomboy discuss the outlook for Fed policy under Kevin Warsh and whether a credit crisis is imminent.
  • 5 (16:39) **Oil Shock vs. Tax Refunds: The Inflation Battle** - Pomboy analyzes the near-term inflationary impact of high oil prices, which is being temporarily offset by a surge in tax refunds.
  • 6 (20:30) **The Hidden Credit Crisis: Pensions and Insurers** - Pomboy identifies the two channels through which the private credit stress could devolve into a broader market crisis.
  • 7 (24:38) **Green Shoots vs. Secular Headwinds** - Adam asks if the administration's 2025 policies (like tax refunds) can create real economic tailwinds in 2026, despite the war.

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Guests on this episode

Stephanie Pomboy

Show Notes

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comMacro maven Stephanie Pomboy returned today for her monthly livestream.We discussed the implications the war is having on global resources and financial markets.Stephanie explained why the latest developments only reinforce her longstanding rational for owning commodities. And why she expects that to be even more important for investors going forward.#iranwar #commodities #privatecredit _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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