Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Stephanie Pomboy: Has The Grand Game Just Changed?

September 2, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Stephanie Pomboy, the macro analyst known as the Macro Maven, opened her monthly conversation with Adam Taggart by noting a strange tension at the heart of U.S. economic policy. The Federal Reserve, under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, is signaling a return to a non-interventionist stance—letting market signals guide policy rather than the other way around. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pursuing aggressive interventions, from yen market operations to a Treasury buyback program. The question hanging over the discussion: which vision will win, and what happens when investors who have been trained for four decades to expect a Fed safety net suddenly find it withdrawn?

The Fed Put Is Being Questioned

Pomboy framed the shift in stark historical terms. The "Fed put"—the implicit guarantee that the central bank would step in to support markets during downturns—was installed by Alan Greenspan in 1987 and reinforced by every chair since. Warsh, by contrast, has argued that the Fed should react to market signals, not override them. Pomboy noted the parallel to Greenspan’s own arrival in 1986: he came in sounding hawkish, long-term yields rose steadily, and the stock market initially ignored them—until the crash of 1987 forced a capitulation that turned Greenspan into the father of the very put he had seemed to reject.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 Timestamped Navigation Outline
  • 2 (00:03) **Opening & Recovery Update** - Adam welcomes Stephanie Pomboy back for her monthly macro and market outlook
  • 3 (01:51) **Has The Grand Game Just Changed?** - Adam introduces the central framing question for the episode
  • 4 (02:13) **Kevin Warsh's Hawkish Vision** - Discussion of Warsh's stated goal to restore market signal integrity
  • 5 (04:23) **Historical Parallel: Greenspan 1986 vs. Warsh Today** - Stephanie draws an eerie comparison between the two Fed chairs
  • 6 (06:27) **The Yield Question: How High Is Too High?** - Examining the implications of long-term Treasury yields at two-decade highs
  • 7 (09:30) **Why Hasn't the Economy Cracked Yet?** - Stephanie explains the surprising resilience despite higher rates

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Stephanie Pomboy Adam Taggart

Show Notes

REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceThe past few weeks have seen potential game changers popping up at home as well as all over the globe.How tectonic are they?Are they re-shaping the future in ways that impact investing strategy?To find out, we have the great good fortune of sitting down with research analyst Stephanie Pomboy, who will not only share her latest macro & market outlook, but take audience Q&A live.#macro #geopolitics #oil 0:00 Has the grand game just changed?2:15 Kevin Warsh and a less interventionist Fed4:21 Ending the Fed put: the Greenspan parallel6:33 Long-term Treasury yields at two-decade highs8:28 Are we in a secular higher-rate era?9:49 Bankruptcies, private credit marks, and hidden stress11:33 Why no crisis yet: Fed-put psychology13:48 Mixed signals from Warsh and Bessent15:41 Why the economy hasn’t buckled yet18:53 AI capex risk and 2007 credit-market echoes21:09 Crowding out and debt rolling at 7.4%23:27 Treasury intervention: buybacks and the yen24:20 The 1921 depression and letting markets clear30:34 Has the put moved from the Fed to Treasury?32:13 The TGA “trillion-dollar” bluff and midterms35:18 Revaluing the U.S. gold reserve37:20 Japan’s soaring yields and the yen carry trade40:48 How seismic would a carry-trade unwind be?42:03 Leverage, margin debt, and corporate balance sheets45:26 Venezuela oil: game changer or nothing burger?53:35 Venezuela, Iran, and the China angle54:51 Canada, Iran, and America as the world’s gas station57:55 The biggest if: midterms, 2028, and policy reversal1:00:00 Where to follow Stephanie + conference wrap_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and oth

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