SPECIAL REPORT: Will The Fertilizer Shortage Create A Global Food Crisis? | Bruce Sherrick

June 3, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

"Most of the fertilizer was already in place for the northern hemisphere planting season this year." That is the single most important fact in this entire conversation about the Strait of Hormuz closure and a potential global food crisis. Bruce Sherrick, a professor of land economics at the University of Illinois and director of the TIAA Center for Farmland Research, walks through why the immediate alarm may be premature, but why the longer-term picture is genuinely uncertain.

The Timing of the Fertilizer Pipeline

The core mechanism that defuses the most dramatic fears is the timing of the agricultural cycle. Sherrick explains that much of the nitrogen application for the US corn crop was applied last fall, before the conflict in the Gulf escalated. "A good share of it was already in the ground," he notes. Farmers had already contracted for and received a large portion of their dry fertilizers by the time spring arrived. This means the northern hemisphere's current growing season was largely provisioned before the supply route was threatened.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Episode Introduction & Context** - Host Adam Taggart frames the special report: one-third of seaborne fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and the war there is raising concerns about global food supply.
2 (01:52) **Guest Background & Framing** - Sherrick explains his focus on anything that impacts farmland values, including the current fertilizer disruption.
3 (03:23) **Defining the Fertilizer Components: NPK** - Sherrick breaks down the three main fertilizer inputs: Nitrogen (N), Phosphate (P), and Potassium (K).
4 (04:45) **US vs. Brazil: Import Dependence** - A critical comparison of how dependent the US and Brazil are on imported fertilizer.
5 (07:05) **Key Distinction: No Commodity Price Offset** - Unlike the Russia-Ukraine war, the Strait of Hormuz disruption has not raised commodity output prices to offset higher input costs.
6 (08:40) **Current Supply Reality: Price Effect, Not Shortage** - For the current northern hemisphere growing season, the impact is mostly higher prices, not a physical inability to get fertilizer.
7 (09:54) **The Russian Supply Question** - Sherrick addresses whether Russian fertilizer supply has been restored since the Ukraine war began.

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Show Notes

Approximately one-third (about 30%–34%) of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.With the Strait closed for so long now, there is growing concern there will be insufficient fertilizer for the Northern Hemisphere harvest this year (which contains 87% of the world's population)Is another Arab Spring -- this time, worldwide -- likely as a result?To find out, we talk with Bruce Sherrick, Professor at the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at Univ of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

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