SPECIAL REPORT: Kevin Warsh Announces New Hawkish Era At The Fed | Axel Merk

June 18, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In his first FOMC meeting as Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh delivered a statement so short and direct that Fed watcher Axel Merk called it “brilliant.” Warsh cut the statement to a few sentences about the economy, declared the committee would pursue price stability, and said nothing else. For Merk, who has spent years criticizing the Fed’s over-communication, this was a signal that a new era had begun — one where the central bank stops jawboning markets and starts letting data do the talking.

What Warsh Changed — and Why It Matters

Warsh came into the Fed with a reputation as a fierce critic of his predecessors. He has long argued that the Fed talks too much, confuses markets with forward guidance that is almost always wrong, and blames external shocks for inflation that is ultimately its own responsibility. His first meeting put those convictions into action.

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What you'll learn

1 (01:38) **Axel’s Excitement & Context** - Axel Merck frames the FOMC release as a major event and introduces his long-time support for Kevin Warsh.
2 (04:57) **Warsh’s First Move: Ending Forward Guidance** - Warsh signals a radical shift away from the communication-heavy approach of his predecessors.
3 (08:59) **The Core Problem with Forward Guidance** - The market should reflect data, not the Fed’s constant commentary.
4 (10:09) **The New Statement & Leadership Style** - Warsh provides a vision without forcing immediate changes.
5 (11:52) **The Task Force Strategy: A Bureaucratic Masterstroke** - Warsh uses committees to overcome internal resistance and drive reform.
6 (12:31) **Market Reaction: The Mission Was Achieved** - The market validated Warsh’s hawkish credibility.
7 (14:20) **The Dot Plot’s Swan Song** - Warsh allowed the dot plot to be published but signaled its days are numbered.

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Guests on this episode

Kevin Warsh

Show Notes

Yesterday, Kevin Warsh made his inaugural debut as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve.Along with revealing that the FOMC is keeping the policy rate unchanged for now, he announced a number of changes at the Fed now that he's "the new sheriff in town".How did the markets react?Fed-watcher Axel Merk returns to the program to share his initial reaction, as well as take live use Q&A#kevinwarsh #federareserve #inflationhedge _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.