SpaceX To Rocket Market Higher, Or Will Gravity Win Out? | Eric Jackson

July 7, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

SpaceX went public at roughly $150 per share, quickly surged past $210, and then pulled back below its opening price. For Eric Jackson, founder of EMJ Capital and a veteran activist investor, that price action tells a story about where the company sits on a probability curve—and whether retail investors arriving late to the IPO are buying into a story that has already been priced in.

Jackson, who has followed Elon Musk’s companies for years and has been a successful activist investor, sees SpaceX as a genuinely impressive business with three distinct operating segments: Starlink (satellite internet, profitable and competitor-free), the original rocket-launch business (now seen as the "boring" part), and the fast-growing AI business that includes Grok, the Cursor tooling platform, and data center capacity sold to companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. The AI segment is the fastest-growing piece and, in Jackson’s estimate, accounts for roughly half of SpaceX’s current market valuation. It is also the part losing the most money right now, as Musk spends heavily to build out capacity and market share.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:30) **The Core Risk of SpaceX** - Eric Jackson identifies the primary danger: SpaceX is a high-profile name that will get hammered if the broader market or AI sector pulls back, and late-arriving IPO buyers will be the first to sell.
2 (03:18) **Eric's Market Outlook: Bullish but Measured** - Jackson gives his current assessment of the financial markets, explaining why he is an optimist and how he views current speculation levels.
3 (10:56) **SpaceX: The Biggest IPO Ever and Its Market Impact** - Jackson explains why SpaceX is a market-moving event, not just a single stock.
4 (14:16) **Valuation Analysis: The Bell Curve Framework** - Jackson deconstructs the IPO price using a probability bell curve, explaining where the stock sits on the spectrum of possible outcomes.
5 (21:48) **The Lockup Risk and Insider Selling** - Discussion of the thin public float and the potential for significant selling pressure when insider lockups expire.
6 (29:22) **Operating Business Breakdown: Starlink, Rockets, and AI** - Jackson assesses the three main business segments of SpaceX.
7 (41:50) **The Risk of Being a High-Profile AI Stock** - Jackson reiterates the danger of SpaceX being a consensus, high-profile name in a hot sector.

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Show Notes

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comHedge fund manager & activist investor Eric Jackson makes his living betting big on "story" stocks.So, what does he think about the prospects for the recent SpaceX IPO?Given its sheer size alone, whatever it does from here will apply a significant gravitational force on the market.The question is: will it pull the market up? Or down?For a deep dive into SpaceX -- plus some other stocks he thinks could be big movers over the coming year -- watch this video.#spacex #valuation #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.