Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Recent Market Breakout Running Out Of Steam? | Lance Roberts

August 15, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Markets Back at Highs, but Underlying Signals Are Shifting

Lance Roberts returned to the show after a two-week break and opened with a striking observation: despite the S&P 500 sitting at all-time highs, the internal character of the market has changed significantly in recent weeks. The sideways consolidation that lasted two months—what Roberts called "the same thing as having a five or ten percent correction"—worked off the overbought conditions that had built up since the April lows. Breadth has surged, with about 70% of companies trading above their 20-day moving average, and retail buyers have returned "with a vengeance."

But that very strength is now feeding a contrarian signal. Roberts noted that his firm's market breadth indicator jumped from 65 to 75 over the past two weeks. "Whenever that indicator gets above 70, it means the market's very bullish," he said. "It's also a contrarian indicator because basically everybody's in." That dynamic, combined with extremely compressed volatility and the market sitting about 10% above its 200-day moving average, led Roberts's team to rebalance all their portfolios on Monday—raising about 2% cash in their 60/40 model, trimming overweight positions in Microsoft, Google, and Amazon after their post-earnings runs, and rebalancing back to target weights across their AI, crypto, growth, and all-weather models.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:00) **Market Outlook & Pullback Needed** - Lance outlines the ideal near-term scenario: a 1-2% correction to retest breakout support before resuming the bull market.
  • 2 (05:58) **Retail Investors Chasing & Portfolio Rebalancing** - Lance notes a surge in retail buying, particularly in semiconductors, and explains why his firm trimmed risk on Monday.
  • 3 (10:33) **De-Risking Actions Taken** - Adam confirms that Lance has already booked gains and trimmed exposure, not just talked about it.
  • 4 (12:02) **Debating the AI Bear Narrative** - Lance counters the argument that AI revenue is "fake" or circular, using Google's earnings as a key example.
  • 5 (24:34) **Lance as the Voice of Spock** - Adam acknowledges Lance's role in cutting through both fear and FOMO to focus on data and flows.
  • 6 (26:07) **Depreciation Risk & The AI Payoff** - Lance explains why the current massive CapEx spending is a productive investment that will pay off handsomely in the future.
  • 7 (31:54) **Real-World AI ROI & Personal Use** - Lance shares how AI saves him 10-15 hours a week, demonstrating a tangible return on investment for his business.

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Guests on this episode

Lance Roberts

Show Notes

Stocks are now "stuck" in a trading range after their recent upside breakout.Is the rally running out of steam?Or are new highs ahead, perhaps after a brief re-test?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the future of AI stocks, the latest employment & CPI data and, of course, his firm's latest trades -- of which he made many over the past week.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.If your work depends on important conversations and making informed decisions, Plaud can help you capture what matters and revisit it when you need it most. Visit https://plaud.ai/adam and use code adam for 15% off all Plaud devices. That's P-L-A-U-D dot A-I slash adam.

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