Oil To Collapse To $25/Barrel After Iran War Ends? | Doomberg

April 2, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Doomberg, an energy market analyst, joins host Adam Taggart to assess the Iran war's effects on oil prices and global energy flows. Despite disruptions like the Strait of Hormuz closure, tanker attacks, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian facilities, oil has hovered around $100 per barrel—far below the $150+ many expected. Doomberg attributes this to aggressive G7 releases from strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), where refiners receive oil now but commit to repaying more later, netting fuller reserves without cash transactions. Governments, led by U.S. officials like Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Treasury's Scott Bessent, are actively capping prices as counterparties to bullish trades.

Why Prices Defied Expectations

Markets have absorbed a 10% global supply hit without panic, thanks to mechanics like SPR loans and drawdowns from floating inventories. Natural gas prices remain low in the U.S. Permian Basin (negative at Waha Hub, under $1 in Alberta) due to co-production: shale wells yield oil, natural gas liquids, and gas together, so drillers prioritize oil and flare or give away gas. LNG trades at $6-20/MMBtu globally but faces diversion from Europe (delaying refills, betting on quick war end) to higher-priced Asia. Coal imports have risen (Newcastle at $137/ton, up 20-25%), as LNG importers like Japan, Korea, and Europe switch fuels for electricity. Permian operators di

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What you'll learn

1 (00:57) **Iran War's Oil Shock Underwhelms** - Doomberg predicts post-war oil collapse to $25-30/barrel amid supply glut and demand destruction
2 (03:23) **War's Short-Term Impact Assessed** - Markets surprised oil stays under $150 despite extreme supply risks
3 (06:15) **Punctuated Equilibrium in Energy Markets** - War splits world into petrodollar vs. petroyuan blocs
4 (07:30) **Global Oil Production Shifts** - Western Hemisphere now long oil; Europe/China short
5 (08:42) **Post-War Supply Tsunami** - Trump right: oil sinks post-war as Middle East restarts, reserves refill
6 (11:00) **Peak Oil Price Already In?** - $120 Brent top; no scenario justifies $150+ without escalation
7 (14:37) **Incremental Supply Response** - New production ramps slowly; SPR swaps trade future for now

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

The war against Iran is creating a global oil shock, both in price and supply.How serious and long-lasting is this likely to be?And what will the knock on effects be: for future oil & gas flows, for other conventional fuels like coal, and for the future of alternative sources like nuclear energy?To discuss in depth, we're fortunate to sit down with the green chicken himself, the energy expert Doomberg.

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