Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
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No Living Investor Has Seen A Time Like This Before | Lawrence Lepard

September 29, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Mathematics of Monetary Collapse

When Lawrence Lepard wrote his book The Big Print, he thought the crisis was imminent. A year and a half later, he's still waiting — but that hasn't shaken his conviction. "It shows you how good a market timer I am," he says with a shrug. What hasn't changed is his central argument: the United States has reached the end of a path built on unsound money, and the math is now inescapable.

Lepard manages a gold stock fund with hundreds of millions of dollars under management, and he spends his year traveling between precious metals conferences where he meets mining company executives face-to-face. He's currently between two such events — Beaver Creek and the Denver Gold Conference in Colorado Springs — and the mood among industry insiders, he reports, is "good but not ebullient." That's a bullish sign in itself: the last time the sector got truly euphoric, in 2010–2011, companies over-expanded and blew themselves up. This time, management teams are disciplined, capital allocation is smarter, and the industry has become more institutionalized. "It's a better industry than it was 10 or 20 years ago," Lepard says.

The Bond Market Is Saying Something

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (00:00) **"No Living Investor Has Seen A Time Like This Before"** - Lawrence Lepard states his core thesis: the conditions today are historically unprecedented, comparable only to the sovereign debt crisis of World War I.
  • 2 (01:34) **Context from the Precious Metals Conferences** - Lepard explains the value of meeting mining management face-to-face and reports that the mood at the conferences is "good but not ebullient," a sign the bull market is still in its early innings.
  • 3 (02:54) **Why Wall Street Hasn't Arrived Yet** - Lepard explains that while the mining industry has better data and discipline, Wall Street is largely ignoring it, but that will change once the "shiny object" of AI and the S&P starts to stumble.
  • 4 (04:12) **The AI Bubble and Mining Efficiency** - Lepard discusses the potential for AI to improve mining efficiency and draws a parallel between the current AI capex boom and historical manias like the railroad and fiber optic bubbles.
  • 5 (05:48) **The "Summer of '07" Feeling** - Lepard identifies specific "cracks in the dam" that give him a similar feeling to the summer of 2007, just before the 2008 financial crisis.
  • 6 (06:49) **The Bond Market is the Key Signal** - Lepard explains that the bond market is not believing the Fed’s narrative, and rising long-term yields are the primary mechanism that will force a crisis.
  • 7 (08:11) **The Deficit is the Core Problem** - Lepard argues that the entire thesis rests on a simple mathematical reality: the US government is trapped by an intractable deficit, and there is no political will to fix it.

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Guests on this episode

Lawrence Lepard

Show Notes

ONLY A FEW DAYS LEFT TO LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceLawrence Lepard is convinced another "Big Print" by the Federal Reserve and other central planners is inevitable."It's just math", he states.And he thinks we're on the precipice of a major dislocating event that will be massive enough to trigger this Big Print.What will it be? And when will it happen?To hear Larry's latest outlook, as well as which assets he thinks will perform best when the money printers fire up, watch this interview.#federalreserve #gold #bitcoin _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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