Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

More & More Signals Popping Up That Suggest A Pullback Is Near | Lance Roberts

August 29, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Nvidia Crushed Earnings, Warsh Spoke at Jackson Hole, and the Market Is Waiting for a Signal

Nvidia delivered another blowout quarter—revenue up 106% year-over-year to $96 billion, data center revenue alone hitting $89 billion, operating income of $63.7 billion up 124%, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.22 up 120%. Yet Lance Roberts was blunt: "It quelled a lot of fears temporarily, but that quelling of fears is going to last about 37 minutes until somebody else comes out on Zero Hedge or somebody else saying, 'Oh, it's the AI data center is a fraud thing.'" The tension between the genuine earnings power and the endless bearish narratives is the defining feature of this moment. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave his Jackson Hole speech hours before this recording, reiterating that the Fed wants markets to operate on their own, that financial conditions are "not restrictive at all," and that he still targets 2% inflation—leaving the door open for a rate hike by year-end if needed. And the S&P 500? It's been grinding sideways since June, with momentum weakening, and Roberts sees a potential pullback to the 50-day moving average ahead.

Nvidia's Numbers Are Real—But the Growth Rate Will Slow

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:52) **Lance Roberts on Nvidia's Earnings and the AI Trade** - The conversation opens with Nvidia's blowout earnings and whether it can sustain the AI rally.
  • 2 (11:44) **Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech and Fed Policy** - Adam shifts to Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish tone and its market implications.
  • 3 (14:35) **Basis Trade Distortion and Interest Rate Signals** - The discussion deepens on how hedge fund activity is skewing the bond market.
  • 4 (21:24) **Economic Weakness Signals: Chicago PMI and Payroll Revisions** - Lance cites fresh data points showing demand destruction.
  • 5 (22:42) **The Two-Speed Economy: AI Capex Boom vs. Consumer Weakness** - Adam asks Lance to reconcile conflicting economic signals.
  • 6 (28:30) **S&P 500 Technical Analysis and September Outlook** - Lance walks through the chart and near-term risk signals.
  • 7 (33:30) **Market Breadth and Risk Reduction Signals** - A deeper dive into breadth indicators and when to reduce exposure.

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Guests on this episode

Lance Roberts

Show Notes

LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceA current sell signal, slowing momentum, retail demand weakening...These are just some of the recently indicators suggesting the market rally is stocks is losing steam, and more likely than not to experience some sort of pullback in the coming weeks.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, the breaking deal for the US to gain access to 65+ billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves, Nvidia's blowout earnigns & forecast, and of course, his firm's latest trades.For everything the mattered to markets this week, watch this video.#kevinwarsh #oil #nvidia _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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