Miracle Turnaround? The US Industrial Economy Is Now Booming DESPITE High Oil Prices | Craig Fuller

April 19, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In November, freight volumes were in a three-year recession, and Craig Fuller of FreightWaves was warning that tariff uncertainty and economic sluggishness were pushing the economy of real things toward a downturn. Five months later, he says the opposite: "I'm as bullish as I've ever been." The US industrial economy is roaring, freight volumes are surging, and manufacturing is on course for one of its best years in recent memory. The turnaround, he argues, is real, broad-based, and visible across trucking, rail, and industrial data — and it is happening despite a war in Iran and rising oil prices.

What is driving the industrial surge

Fuller identifies several catalysts behind the recovery, but the most important is the boom in data center construction. Data centers require enormous amounts of steel, copper, aluminum, concrete, transmission lines, cooling systems, and backup generators — all of which are heavy, bulky goods that move on trucks and trains. "It's not just the GPUs," he says. "It's all of the components." The tax bill passed last year, which restored 100% bonus depreciation for capital investments, has created a powerful incentive for businesses to buy equipment and build facilities now. A plumber or contractor can buy a heavy-duty truck, finance it over several years, and write off the full cost in year one. The same logic applies to industrial machinery and

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What you'll learn

1 (01:00) **The Bullish Reversal** - Craig Fuller declares he is now as bullish as he has ever been, a complete reversal from his bearish stance just five months prior.
2 (04:34) **Drivers of the Industrial Surge: Data Centers and Tax Policy** - Fuller identifies the primary catalyst for the boom as the industrial sector coming back, driven by data center build-outs and tax benefits.
3 (07:04) **Bonus Depreciation as a Stimulus** - Fuller details how the return of 100% bonus depreciation is incentivizing small businesses and contractors to invest in heavy equipment like trucks.
4 (08:01) **The Natural Gas Advantage** - Fuller argues that the US industrial economy is insulated from high oil prices because it primarily runs on cheap, abundant natural gas.
5 (13:22) **The Great Shift: From Import-Driven to Production-Driven** - Fuller identifies a historic shift in the freight market, where the center of the country is now producing and shipping goods out, rather than just receiving imports.
6 (18:53) **Why the Recovery Feels "Stealth"** - Fuller explains the disconnect between the booming domestic economy and the perception of economic weakness.
7 (20:58) **The War in Iran: A Non-Issue and a Tailwind** - Fuller states definitively that there is nothing in the data suggesting the war is harming the US freight economy; in fact, it is a tailwind.

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Show Notes

The freight industry has long been thought of the circulatory system of the economy.It's how the things bought & sold through commerce get from point A to point B in the real world. And when today's guest last appeared on this channel back in November, he warned that freight volumes had fallen dramatically due to tariff uncertainty and economic sluggishness. A recession in the economy of "real things" looked imminent.But...the situation now seems to be experiencing a sharp and welcome turnaround. Freight volumes are up. And US manufacturing is on course to enjoy one of the best markets in years.What's responsible for this happy development? How sustainable does it look to be? Could the ramifications of the war in Iran and the resulting oil price shock derail this recovery?To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Craig Fuller of Freightwaves, a price reporting agency (PRA) focused on the global freight market and the leading provider of high-frequency data for the global supply chain.

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