Market Starting To Crack Under High Bond Yields? | WMR 9 24 26

September 26, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The 10-year Treasury yield recently touched 5.1%, and beneath the placid surface of the S&P 500, economically sensitive sectors are already cracking. Co-portfolio manager Michael Liebowitz of RIA joins Adam Taggart to explain why the real action is invisible to anyone just watching the headline indices, how the lagged impact of higher rates is only beginning to bite, and why the AI spending boom may be masking a much weaker economy than the GDP numbers suggest.

What the S&P 500 Is Hiding

The S&P 500 looks almost boring, stuck in a narrow channel near its all-time high. But that calm is an illusion created by a handful of mega-cap technology stocks. Liebowitz shows the divergence: the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is down 4%, financials are off 5%, small caps are down 6.5%, real estate is down 7%, and utilities are down 9%. "There's 10 stocks dragging this thing higher," he says. "It's a very small number of AI technology-specific stocks that are making the sea look very calm. Underneath, we're getting some significant churn."

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What you'll learn

1 (01:08) **Market Masking and the Real Pain Beneath** - Michael Liebowitz shows that the S&P 500's calm surface hides significant weakness in interest-rate-sensitive sectors.
2 (03:09) **Why High Yields Take Time to Crack the Economy** - Liebowitz explains the lag between rising bond yields and their economic impact, and why "higher rates beget lower rates."
3 (07:17) **The AI Tech Bubble: LeBron James and Four Skeletons** - Michael uses a basketball analogy to describe the market's dangerous reliance on a tiny group of AI stocks.
4 (13:33) **Fed vs. Administration: Brakes vs. Accelerator** - Adam and Michael debate the tension between the Fed's cooling efforts and the administration's pro-growth policies, plus the role of AI productivity.
5 (16:36) **Is AI Investment a Dot-Com Style Overbuild?** - The conversation turns to whether AI capex will generate the promised returns, or repeat the telecom fiber-optic bust.
6 (23:39) **Moore's Law Threatens AI Compute Demand** - Both discuss how efficiency improvements and cheaper AI models could shrink future demand for expensive frontier models.
7 (28:59) **Google's Search Monopoly Under AI Pressure** - Adam questions how Google will monetize AI-generated search results when users get direct answers instead of clicking ads.

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Guests on this episode

Adam Taggart

Show Notes

LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceBond yields continue their surge higher.The US 10-year Treasury bond is now at its highest yield in 19 years.Will stocks start to crack as a result?Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz thinks the answer is "yes", and that if we look below the surface at the markets, we are already seeing signs weakness is underway.For all the details, watch this week's new Market Recap.#bonds #interestrates #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.