Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Luke Gromen & Darius Dale: How Close To The End Are We?

September 13, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Luke Gromen and Darius Dale, two of the most respected macro analysts in the business, joined Adam Taggart for a rare joint appearance that quickly became a masterclass in how to think about the U.S. fiscal and market trajectory. Both men agree the system is heading toward a major reckoning, but they differ sharply on how close we are to the end and what the next few years will look like for investors. The core of the conversation revolved around a simple but brutal math problem: the U.S. government's interest and entitlement obligations now exceed its total receipts, even in a strong economy.

The Disequilibrium and the Paradigm Framework

Darius Dale introduced a structured framework to explain the current situation. He described Paradigm A as the starting point: a supply-demand disequilibrium in the Treasury bond market, driven by too many bonds being created and too few buyers. This was triggered by geopolitical forces pulling capital away from U.S. markets. Paradigm C is the current phase, where policymakers attempt to "grow" their way out of the debt problem by booming the economy. Dale argues we are firmly in this phase now, with the economy running hot. However, this boom is temporary. Eventually, it will give way to Paradigm D ("default via debasement"), where the monetary authority must expand the monetary base to warehouse the risk from capital market

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What you'll learn

  • 1 Timestamped Navigation Outline
  • 2 (00:56) **Opening: Inning Framework & Paradigm Overview** - Adam asks both guests what "inning" they think we're in on the path to the ultimate destination
  • 3 (08:09) **Luke's Key Metric: True Interest Expense at 105% of Receipts** - Luke explains why his temperature gauge says we're much later in the game than Darius thinks
  • 4 (13:30) **Luke's 9th Inning Vision & Social Symptoms** - Luke describes what the late innings look like for regular people, not just bond markets
  • 5 (22:55) **Historical Base Rates: What Usually Happens Next** - Darius presents Peter Turchin's complexity science data on what befalls societies with severe wealth inequality
  • 6 (31:44) **Clarifying the Inning Disagreement: Bond Crisis vs. Societal Collapse** - The two guests reconcile their different inning estimates
  • 7 (33:05) **Darius's Bond Fair Value Models: 10-Year at 5.87%** - Darius lays out quantitative models showing how mispriced Treasuries are

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Luke Gromen Darius Dale Adam Taggart

Show Notes

LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceTwo of the sharpest minds in macro & markets return for a detailed thoughtful exploration of what lies ahead.Both think the trajectory we're on eventually ends in a painful, inflationary breakdown, preceded by a bond market crisis.So I ask them: how close to the end do you think we are?Their answers may surprise you.For one of the most important discussions you'll hear this year about the approaching endgame, watch this video.#bondyields #inflation #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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